India is likely to see above-average monsoon rains for the second straight year in 2025, the government said on Tuesday, raising expectations of higher farm and economic growth in Asia's third-biggest economy.
The monsoon delivers nearly 70% of the rain needed to water crops and recharge reservoirs and aquifers. With nearly half of the country's farmland without any irrigation, it depends on the June-September rains to grow a number of crops. Good rains will help to bring down food prices, to keep inflation at the central bank's comfort level, and to allow the world's biggest rice exporter to ship more of the staple.
The monsoon, which usually arrives over the southern tip of Kerala state around June 1 and retreats in mid-September, is expected to reach 105% of the long-term average this year, M Ravichandran, secretary in the Ministry of Earth Sciences, told a news conference.
The India Meteorological Department defines average or normal rainfall as ranging between 96% and 104% of a 50-year average of 87 cm (35 inches) for the four-month season.
Above-average rainfall is very likely over most parts of the country, except for some areas over northwest India, northeast India, and southern Peninsular India, where below-average rainfall is likely, Ravichandran said.
The El Niño weather phenomenon, which usually leads to below normal monsoon rains, is unlikely to occur during the four-month-long monsoon season, said Ravichandran. In 2024, India received 107.6% of its long period average rainfall, against a forecast of 106%.
Steady agricultural growth will boost rural consumption and keep inflation near the Reserve Bank of India's estimate, enabling flexibility in rate cuts amid global volatility, said Aditi Gupta, economist at Bank of Baroda. Reuters
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