Rumours of American decline

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"The unceasing round of valour, greatness, discord, degeneracy, and decay." This is how Edward Gibbon summarises the lifecycles of Asiatic dynasties in his book, The History of the Decline and Fall of the Roman Empire. It is interesting to note that he was sharing these thoughts on Asian decline in a book about the Roman, or Western, decline — and we are now repurposing it to evaluate the rumours surrounding American decline. This sombre message strikes one much like a fortune cookie. A misfortune cookie?

The reason we are once again discussing this topic has much to do with American politics and media coverage. Not a day passes without someone raising the issue. To some, President Trump's return to the White House and his subsequent policies serve to confirm their worst fears about American decline. To his supporters, America was already in steep decline, and only President Trump can give it a fighting chance to reverse the trend. But what should we make of the pundits who have been predicting such a decline for decades?

Remember Dr Fareed Zakaria's book, The Post-American World, which shortly preceded the seminal moment of the 2008 financial crash — the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers. The book is not about decline per se, but about the slowing of American progress, which allows countries like China and India to catch up. Zakaria's argument is that instead of resisting the emergence of a multipolar world, America should lead it — with confidence, not arrogance. This, from the gentleman who platformed Samuel Huntington's Clash of Civilizations when he was editor of Foreign Affairs. Clearly, Huntington's work is a shining example of leading with confidence, not arrogance. Right? Wrong.

Personally, I have nothing against Dr Zakaria. In fact, I admire his penmanship and his ability to weave complex themes into a single tapestry. What I do not appreciate is the tendency of many such intellectuals to routinely attempt to set the agenda. There should be a clear distinction between intellectuals and lobbyists — especially when the country in question has been so generous to them. But then, some of us cannot sever our ties of loyalty to the land of our origin - which raises a broader question about divided loyalties. It is unlikely that I will ever permanently relocate to another country, but if I did, I would consider it essential to leave behind the conflicting influences of my past. I cannot function with divided loyalties. Perhaps that's just me, but I do think the distinction matters.

I bring him up because during President Trump's recent tariff manoeuvres, Zakaria's voice - and meltdown - were quite visible. It is apparently acceptable to tariff China, but if such trade sabre-rattling targets other countries, say India, it can only end in tears and is tantamount to an abdication of responsibility.

Since then, President Trump has paused the said tariffs. If media claims are to be taken at face value, this was ostensibly done to strengthen America's position vis-a-vis China, which still faces those tariffs. The fact that he often refuses to uncritically accept the media and punditry's framing of friends and enemies causes repeated public meltdowns among his critics. Now that a semblance of their desired order has been restored, the media, pundits and foreign shills may ease up on him a little.

We will revisit the 90-day suspension of the remaining tariffs in a moment. But let us first try to comprehend what the Trump administration is attempting to do - and why all media outlets, except Fox, portray it as a pile of red-hot mess. It would be prudent to remember that while American deindustrialisation, as a result of globalisation, has a long history, it was the 2008 financial crisis that truly shook the country's faith in the consumerist nature of its economy.

I have said many times that the US never truly recovered from that shock and the accompanying loss of public trust. Lives and livelihoods were destroyed, and thanks to President Obama's desire to look and sound presidential - or simply to keep up appearances — the guilty executives walked free, with little or no consequences. When you are too eager to prove that the economy is recovering, the fruits of recovery are diverted to flashy, vocal and visible places. In America, that meant the coastal cities, while the heartland kept toiling to survive.

President Trump's entire platform - with its catchy slogans 'Make America Great Again', 'America First' and 'The Forgotten Men and Women of America, Forgotten No Longer' - is meant to address this situation. But he has spent the first few months back in office wielding a sledgehammer: not just to correct imbalances, but to measure the extent of the rot. That is why one measure has followed another at breakneck speed.

Unfortunately, the foreign powers that have a hold on American media, punditry, bureaucracy, and even the stock markets, failed to understand this - and used all the resources at their disposal to remind the administration of their leverage, thereby exposing their methods and sources of power to the President.

Remember, this is the time when Musk's DOGE has been busy auditing the performance, efficiency and loyalties of the bureaucracy. Even among the most dedicated supporters of foreign causes within the American political class, there are precious few who would tolerate the idea of America becoming a vessel state.

So, all those who revealed their hand in leveraging the situation have already made the early measures of the administration successful. A growing number of swing voters are seeing — perhaps for the first time - that something is amiss with their media and with the country's so-called allies. With the entire term still ahead, the administration is in a strong position to put what it has learned to good use.

If any foreign ally believes they have assets in this administration, they should smell the coffee and wake up. These professionals are working for a very different populist platform. So, even if some allies tried to target the bond markets to force the Trump administration's hand on tariffs, they would be well advised to exercise constant vigilance — given the Pandora's box they may have just opened.

As for American decline, I leave you with the following facts from Peter Zeihan's The Accidental Superpower:

The US has 17,600 miles of navigable rivers — far more than its rivals. Two oceans provide vast natural defences. It possesses immense and fertile farmland in the Midwest. Historically, the US has maintained a relatively young population. Post-WWII, it produced about 25% of global output. And thanks to the shale revolution, the US is now a top energy producer.

So, the rumours of America's decline are greatly exaggerated.