Pakistan's Sensitive Price Indicator (SPI) showed mixed trends for the week ended April 3, 2025 as it recorded an increase of 0.20% compared to the previous week while on a year-on-year (YoY) basis, the index posted a significant decline of 1.99%.
This marks the lowest YoY SPI reading since comparable data has been available, indicating a notable deflationary trend compared to the same period of last year when the index stood at 326.29 (in the week ended April 4, 2024), according to data compiled by Arif Habib Limited based on figures from the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics.
With the week-on-week (WoW) increase of 0.20%, the SPI reading rose from 319.14 in the previous week ended March 27, 2025 to 319.79 in the latest week.
The weekly rise was primarily driven by higher prices of essential food items and some other consumer goods such as chicken, potatoes, onions, lawn (printed fabric) and tomatoes. Conversely, a decline in prices was recorded for garlic, bananas, eggs, liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), petrol and wheat flour.
Out of the 51 items tracked by the SPI during the week, prices of 15 items (29.41%) increased, 10 items (19.61%) decreased, while 26 items (50.98%) remained unchanged.
On a week-on-week basis, a considerable increase was observed in prices of chicken (7.17%), potatoes (6.50%), onions (5.10%), lawn (printed fabric) (0.71%), tomatoes (0.66%), gur (0.63%), mustard oil (0.61%), beef (0.52%), long cloth (0.32%), fresh milk (0.25%), firewood and mutton (0.12% each), and cigarettes (0.08%).
On the contrary, a decline in prices was recorded for garlic (6.11%), bananas (5.34%), eggs (4.79%), LPG (0.70%), petrol (0.33%), wheat flour (0.20%), pulse mash (0.14%), pulse moong (0.13%), pulse masoor (0.05%), and powdered milk (0.01%).
On a year-on-year basis, the SPI showed an overall drop of 1.99%, driven by a significant decrease in prices of onions (67.46%), wheat flour (31.63%), tomatoes (20.93%), chilli powder (20%), Q1 electricity charges (18.92%), branded tea (16.98%), pulse mash (13.47%), petrol (11.89%), pulse masoor (11.03%), broken Basmati rice (9.64%), diesel (8.29%), and LPG (0.62%).
However, a notable YoY increase was witnessed in prices of ladies' sandals (55.62%), pulse moong (27.10%), powdered milk (25.74%), beef (21.10%), sugar (18.60%), pulse gram (17.91%), 1kg vegetable ghee (16.21%), chicken (15.74%), 2.5kg vegetable ghee (15.66%), lawn (printed fabric) (12.52%), georgette (10.54%), and firewood (10.53%).
An analysis of income quintiles (Q1 to Q5) reflected the overall trend, with all groups experiencing WoW increases ranging from 0.17% to 0.28%, while simultaneously showing YoY decreases between 1.42% and 2.59%.
The historical data illustrates a sharp fall in YoY inflation in recent months, culminating in the current negative reading.
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