China and the Muslim world

China’s influence in the Muslim world has grown significantly over the past decade or so

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China's military and economic rise has made it the most prominent challenger to America's global dominance. Amidst this intensifying Sino-American strategic rivalry, the need to balance relations with these two superpowers is becoming a significant challenge, including for Muslim majority countries.

Prominent Muslims nations in South Asia and in the Middle East, which have traditionally maintained strong ties with the US, are now trying to further their own national interests by forging closer ties with China as well.

In the South Asian region, China has significantly enhanced military cooperation with Pakistan and become the most prominent bilateral lender for the economically stressed country via provision of significant loans for CPEC. China is now the largest trading partner for Bangladesh, and ties between the two countries are posed to strengthen, especially amidst the growing Bangladeshi rift with India.

Initially hesitant to play a stabilisation role in Afghanistan during two decades of NATO intervention, China is trying to develop an understanding with the Taliban regime in a bid to secure vital resources, and to eventually link Afghanistan to the BRI, which could extend China's reach to the Central Asian states.

Of course, Chinese interactions within South Asia are not confined to focusing on Muslims states alone, as it is also simultaneously trying to wean Nepal and Sri Lanka away from reliance on India. China's increased presence across South Asia is largely motivated by its compulsion of push back against India, which has positioned itself as America's sheriff in the region, with ambitions to contain Chinese power projections in the broader Indo-Pacific region.

China and India have also been competing for influence further afield as well. Besides vying for influence in Southeast Asian states like Indonesia and Malaysia, China also signed an ambitious deal with Iran to counter Indian attempts to invest in a deep seaport at Chabahar. China has now become the largest trading partner for Iran. China is also focused on enhancing its already solid relations with the Gulf states as well.

Cumulatively, China's influence in the Muslim world has thus grown significantly over the past decade or so. Consider, for instance, how Chinese exports to the Muslim world have overtaken its exports to the US. This trend will probably continue to experience an upward swing given the new round of trade sanctions being imposed by the Trump administration, and the Chinese decision to take countermeasures.

China has also made some notable diplomatic moves with the Muslim nations. In March last year, China managed to nudge Saudi Arabia and Iran to revive diplomatic ties. China is also trying to capitalise on the growing anti-American sentiment across the Muslim world due to Washington's support for the ongoing Israeli assault on Palestinians.

China has managed to bring together Fateh and Hamas, the two main rival Palestinian factions, to sign a unity agreement aimed at preserving Palestinian control over Gaza once Israeli military operations end. What will happen to this understanding during the renewed assault on Gaza is uncertain. However, China has created an evident niche for itself regarding an issue of significant concern across the Muslim world.

China has not always played its cards right within Muslim countries, of course. China's support to the Assad regime in Syria, for instance, proved to be a losing bet. Yet, China's proactiveness has enabled it to bolster relations with rulers of many major Muslim countries who feel they are either being sidelined, ignored or ostracised by the US.

As great power rivalry continues to intensify under the Trump administration, China may try to further deepen its arc of influence across the Muslim world. Whether such efforts will help lessen longstanding rifts within the Muslim world, or yield more meaningful solutions to address lingering problems like the Israeli-Palestine imbroglio, remains to be seen.