Surge in terrorism

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Terrorism has raised its ugly head again. The violence has reached the same level that we saw a decade ago. Data provided by Pakistan Institute for Peace Studies, an Islamabad-based think tank, shows a clear linkage between the spike in violence and the change of government in Kabul.

According to the numbers, Pakistan witnessed 89 terrorist attacks in 2021 after the Taliban takeover in August that year. The surge continued – with 262 attacks in 2022; 306 in 2023; and 521 in 2024, the highest since 2014. The first quarter of 2025 alone has seen 167 terrorist attacks, showing an alarming upsurge in violence. K-P and Balochistan are the hardest hit. In the last few days alone, over two dozen terrorist attacks were reported from K-P province.

Balochistan, meanwhile, recorded 119 per cent increase in terrorist attacks in 2024 compared to the previous year. The recent train hijacking highlighted the new sophistication and audacity of terrorists to carry out such attacks. The Jaffar Express incident was only the 6th hijacking of a train ever recorded in the world.

How did we reach here?

Pakistan successfully eradicated terrorism in 2018 after years of struggle. Massive military operations and countless IBOs were carried out in the erstwhile tribal areas. In the process Pakistan paid a huge price both in terms of men and material. The official stance is that the spike in terrorism is directly linked to the situation in Afghanistan.

The Taliban return to power in Afghanistan has emboldened terrorist outfits including the banned TTP. The leftover US weapons, including night vision goggles and other gadgets, provided edge to these groups.

Independent experts concur with the assessment but also blame Pakistan's complacency. After relative peace returned to the country, the authorities could not initiate the follow-up steps to consolidate the gains. The major miscalculation on the part of Pakistani policymakers about Afghan Taliban played a key role.

Initially, Pakistan celebrated the Taliban victory, hoping that this would usher in a new era of cooperation and prosperity between the two neighbours. Pakistan had historical ties with the Afghan Taliban. The country's security establishment protected the Taliban leadership and their families when they were kicked out from their country in the US-led campaign after the 9/11 attacks. The approach stemmed from the fact the Afghan Taliban was a national movement and they were here to stay.

Therefore, Pakistan decided to back them or at least refused to act against them on the US demand. Pakistani decision-makers felt that once the US and foreign forces would leave, they could work around the Afghan Taliban and secure their strategic interests.

However, once the Taliban returned to power, it emerged within a few months that Pakistan's expectations were misplaced. Taliban refused to act against the TTP or other groups and started becoming more hostile towards Pakistan. Today, the Afghan Taliban, probably, have better engagement with India than Pakistan.

It's ironic since India always viewed the Afghan Taliban as Pakistan's proxy. At present, Pakistan is facing more risk from Afghanistan than India. One of the major reasons behind the strained ties is that Pakistan no longer follows the policy of appeasement to these groups. The Afghan Taliban want Pakistan to negotiate with the TTP and find a political solution. Pakistan on the other hand is adamant that it won't negotiate with terrorists.

These militant groups used violence as leverage against their adversaries. The Afghan Taliban did exactly that when they were negotiating a deal with the US in Doha. This is the strategy at play. The terrorist groups are raising the game with deadly attacks to blackmail Pakistan. It is a high risk game.

Pakistan can either revisit its strategy or go all out against these groups. The current trend suggests that the state will ultimately prevail but things may get worse before getting better!