Tropical Cyclone Alfred has unexpectedly slowed, delaying its projected landfall on Australia’s east coast by at least 24 hours. Forecasters now expect it to make landfall early Saturday, a shift from earlier predictions of an early Friday impact.
The delay raises concerns about prolonged heavy rainfall, strong winds, and potential flooding across southeast Queensland and northern New South Wales.
Unexpected shift in Cyclone’s path
Meteorologists had initially projected Cyclone Alfred to continue moving steadily toward the Queensland coast. However, by Wednesday evening, instead of progressing inland, the cyclone stalled and looped back on itself, shifting its position further offshore.
"Alfred basically stalled and almost did a loop-de-loop back on itself," said Christie Johnson, a meteorologist at the Bureau of Meteorology (BoM).
Why did Alfred slow down?
The cyclone’s movement is largely controlled by steering flow, which refers to wind patterns between 2 km and 10 km in the atmosphere.
On Tuesday, Alfred encountered a high-pressure ridge over the Tasman Sea, which redirected it toward southeast Queensland.
"When it took that sharp turn, it came under the influence of that ridge, and these systems tend to have much lighter winds associated with them," said Professor Liz Ritchie-Tyo, a cyclone expert at Monash University.
Additionally, Alfred turned toward the coast slightly further north than forecast models had anticipated, weakening its steering flow and causing delays in movement.
This unexpected shift in trajectory highlights forecasting challenges, which Ritchie-Tyo likened to the butterfly effect—where small variations in a model’s input can result in significant deviations in long-term projections.
Current speed and expected landfall
As of Thursday morning, Alfred was moving at 7 km/h, which is relatively slow for a tropical cyclone.
"There’s no indication that it will pick up much speed," Ritchie-Tyo said. "So that means the winds and rain will remain over the same area for an extended period."
According to BoM meteorologists, the storm could stall again before landfall or temporarily speed up overnight Thursday into Friday, before slowing again.
Queensland Premier David Crisafulli stated on Thursday that the most likely scenario remains a coastal crossing on Saturday morning, delaying the impact by 24 hours from initial predictions.
When will the impacts be felt?
Coastal regions in southeast Queensland and northern NSW have already begun experiencing strong winds and heavy rainfall, with conditions expected to intensify throughout Thursday and Friday.
Brisbane is expected to experience very strong winds by Thursday night.
A severe weather warning has been issued from Gympie to the NSW border, warning of intense rainfall and damaging winds.
The BoM has cautioned that heavy rainfall from Thursday night could lead to flash flooding, particularly south of the cyclone’s center.
Cyclone intensity at landfall
Earlier forecasts had suggested that Cyclone Alfred could strengthen to a Category 3 system before landfall, but chances of that have now decreased.
The system is now expected to weaken to Category 1 at landfall, although it may remain a high-end Category 2 for much of its approach.
Wind speeds alone do not determine the cyclone’s overall impact—flooding and storm surges remain a major concern, regardless of its official classification.
While the Brisbane region is projected to be near the point of landfall, meteorologists have urged residents not to focus on the exact landfall location, as impacts will be widespread, spanning from the Sunshine Coast to northern NSW.
Warnings issued for wide area
The BoM has advised that a vast area stretching from Double Island Point near K’gari in Queensland to Grafton in northern NSW should expect damaging gales over the next 24 hours.
Authorities continue to monitor Cyclone Alfred’s trajectory and are urging residents in low-lying and flood-prone areas to be prepared for possible evacuations.
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