Trump's likely policy for Pakistan

America's foreign policy and its relationship with Pakistan in South Asia are important themes in world politics. Since the two countries established diplomatic ties in 1947, their relationship has oscillated between collaboration and conflict. Their alliance has lacked a shared vision and a coherent conceptual framework, which has weakened their relationship over time.

The Pak-US relationship has experienced multiple setbacks. As a superpower, the US significantly influences global geopolitical and economic centres. Pakistan understands this; therefore, it has a distinct role in South Asia and beyond, particularly in the Muslim world. The US must understand that any policy for South Asia will be incomplete without Pakistan. It is worth noting that at the end of the Cold War, the US believed Pakistan had lost its significance.

Washington's policy towards Pakistan during the Trump's first tenure can be divided into two phases. In the first two years, the relations between the two countries remained clearly strained. However, the Afghan peace process brought them closer from 2019 till 2020. The Trump administration focused on the Afghan peace process, counterterrorism and China's containment. Trump's first term posed significant challenges for Pakistan, with frequently fluctuating ties.

Trump did not mention Pakistan during his second term election campaign. Under Trump 2.0, the US relations with Pakistan are likely to be transactional. The bilateral ties have mostly pivoted on how Pakistan aided US policies to address regional complexities. Considering Trump's past policies and emerging challenges, his administration's approach towards Pakistan will likely mirror his previous term. His potential policy may continue emphasising counterterrorism efforts, pressuring Islamabad to prevent the resurgence of militant groups within the region.

Trump's foreign policy vis-à-vis South Asia is expected to focus more on strengthening US relations with India in terms of counterbalancing China's influence in the Indo-Pacific and cementing its role as Washington's preferred partner. His administration will likely strengthen defence, economic and technological ties with India, solidifying its position as a key ally in the region. This prioritisation could come at the expense of Pakistan's standing, potentially reducing its significance in US geopolitical calculations – unless it notably contributes to what the US perceives as regional stability.

Trump may also expect Pakistan to act as a stabilising force in Afghanistan and leverage its influence over key players like the Taliban to promote peace within the region without necessitating deeper US involvement. This would be consistent with his desire to limit America's military commitments abroad.

Overall, Washington's approach towards Pakistan is unlikely to fundamentally change the Pak-US relations under Trump 2.0. The relationship will likely be driven by immediate security and strategic needs such as counterterrorism efforts, Afghanistan stability and containing China's influence, rather than broader ambitions of fostering long-term collaboration – possibly deprioritising non-strategic aspects such as economic development, educational exchange or cultural diplomacy. Pakistan's ability to adapt to US priorities and prove its value in achieving shared goals would largely dictate this relationship.

To sum up, Trump's policy towards Pakistan might remain transactional, shaped by Pakistan's role in counterterrorism, its relationship with China, and its positioning in the broader Indo-Pacific strategy. The degree of cooperation is likely to depend on Pakistan's alignment with US strategic objectives within the region. Without mutual trust and long-term shared interests, the Pak-US ties are likely to remain uncertain. However, evolving security dynamics, particularly in South Asia, will play a decisive role in shaping this relationship under Trump's second term.