War in Gaza — method to madness?

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This piece intends to undertake the cost-benefit analysis of the war in Gaza that started with Hamas's surprise attack into Israel proper on October 7, 2023. Coinciding with the Jewish religious holiday of Shemini Atzeret, Hamas and some other Palestinian groups attacked southern Israel from Gaza launch pad. It was the first invasion of Israeli territory since the 1948 Arab-Israel War. Israel's genocidal response using overwhelming and disproportionate force – air and ground – culminated in the 19 January 2025 ceasefire mediated by the US, Qatar and Egypt, after almost 14 months of carnage in Gaza, the West Bank, Syria and Lebanon. Each stakeholder emerged differently from this conflict.

First, Israel and the region. Having suffered almost 1,200 deaths, mostly of civilians, and around 250 of its nationals taken hostage (Isreal's official figure is 62), Israel responded with air and missile attacks, followed by ground invasion of the entire Gaza Strip, destroying it into rubble, and forcing its entire population of over 2.3 million to migrate repeatedly. Israel did badly hurt Hamas, without eliminating it, killing its top leadership. It also hit Hezbollah hard in the neighbouring Lebanon. Israel also struck Iran and militarily degraded its third proxy, Houthis.

Netanyahu's 'resolute' response to the crisis, despite catastrophic initial intelligence failure and political problems, has given him a new lease of political life, shielding him from judicial ire in corruption cases, and keeping his right-wing government afloat. He greatly cemented alliance with Washington, under Democrat as well as Republican leadership. And the US Jewish caucus, consequently, now unquestioningly calls the shots. Gaza is without a coherent government and the two-state solution, for now, is buried under its rubble.

Second, Iran optimally manipulated its 3H Alliance (Hamas, Hezbollah and Houthi) initially; however, Iran was spared greater physical destruction during its tit-for-tat exchanges with Israel, thanks to the US and European interlocution. Though, Israel tried hard, unsuccessfully, to drag the US into direct military confrontation with Iran. At the end of the day, Iran's regional influence and leverage is greatly diminished after significant destruction of 3H, its own military capabilities, and the loss of power by its strong proxy, Bashar al-Assad in Syria. In the West Plus-facilitated takeover of Syria, the Russian influence also stands reduced, despite nominal presence at Khamiemeim air and Tartus naval bases.

Third, in Lebanon, Hezbollah's stranglehold on political and social life stands weakened, to the greater respite of Government Forces and the Sunni minority (27-32% estimated). Hezbollah was always a deadly power centre outside the official formulation. The sophisticated Israeli 'pager offensive' on 17-18 September 2024, and the killing of its leader Hassan Nasrullah on 27 September during IDF airstrike on Hezbollah HQs in Beirut, besides air and ground incursions, badly degraded it as a formidable and coherent military force.

Fourth, in the greater Middle East, the Sunni states sidestepped and acquiesced, if not supported the Israeli-engendered destruction of the militant power of Hamas and Hezbollah, in particular. Egypt and Jordan are now reeling under President Trump's proposal of relocating the entire population of uprooted Palestinians from Gaza, which will upend their demography. Jordan still remembers the assassination of King Abdullah-I by a Palestinian in 1951; and the war between PLO fighters and Jordanian Forces in 1970. This is even though the Palestinians in the West Bank have complicated Jordanian citizenship and seats in the Jordanian Parliament. Likewise, Egypt would provide political, diplomatic and humanitarian aid to Palestinians and for their cause, without agreeing to their resettlement in Sinai, if ever. The only diplomatic setback for Tel Aviv in this conflict is the Israeli-Saudi normalisation, which is not on hold. The world's opinion be damned.

So, the Middle Eastern mosaic today stands militarily and political dominated by the right wing in Isreal, with America effectually in the tow. Claiming that the America's Middle East Policy, if any, is hostage to Netanyahu's right-wing cohort will not be an overstatement.

And finally, Hamas. The October attacks, from the Hamas standpoint, can at best be 'rationalised' as Hamas's desperation to enliven the Palestinian cause, rejuvenate the 'two-state solution' and restrain Riyadh from normalisation of relations with Tel Aviv. That was perhaps the case in the pre-Trump universe. With chimera like the 'Gaza Riviera' on the Mediterranean, today's Middle Eastern geopolitical construct is fundamentally altered.

One, Israel with the American support has been able to re-establish its military deterrence (of unacceptable retaliation) with a vengeance. Two, the US has no Middle East Policy per se. Semblance of policy, if any, is outsourced to Netanyahu-led far right in Israel and its American benefactors. Three, Iran, the biggest challenger to Tel Aviv, is neutralized, with its 3H proxies militarily degraded. Four, Russia's residual influence is waning, and the West Plus seems to fill the vacuum. Five, Greater Middle East, including Saudi Arabia, Egypt and Jordan, is apparently in no position to challenge Trump's mercurial impulses and goals to remake Middle East in his imagination.

Gaza is a wasteland of destruction – lost lives, broken dreams and immense socio-psychological trauma. Up to the January 2025 ceasefire, more than 46,000 Gazans, about 2% of the territory's population, had died, and scores injured. Gaza's fatalities include 33.1% children, 18.3% women and 8.6% elderly over 60. More than 80% losses are non-combatant civilians including journalists and healthcare workers. Gaza's two-thirds infrastructure is damaged or destroyed. Israeli losses are not publicly known.

The reported carnage raises some critical questions. Did Hamas and its handlers in Tehran know what they were doing? Did they anticipate the US, European and Arab reaction correctly? Did they correctly map out IDF's military response? Did they know the 'real world' does not do beyond verbal condemnations and protests? Did they realise the strength of the US-Israel alliance and its ability to flout international norms at will, whenever, wherever? Did they understand the Jewish global power that is so intricately woven into everyday life everywhere, that its total separation is next to impossible?

If the answer to most of these questions and more is no, and it seems so, then Hamas's gambit in Israel was a geo-strategic and military blunder. Time for Zelenskyy to relent!