Ukraine - a pawn on the diplomatic chessboard

John Bolton, the national security adviser during the first Trump administration, believes that "Trump has effectively surrendered before Putin before negotiations have begun on Ukraine." In an interview with CNN, Bolton also lamented that Trump had reversed American position that Ukraine should be returned to full sovereignty and territorial integrity. The meeting between Russian and American officials in Riyadh on February 18 also reflected that the Trump administration bypassed Ukraine in the negotiations with Moscow.

During the recent Munich Security Conference, US Vice President JD Vance blasted Europe for "not adhering" to democracy. Three years after the Russian attack on Ukraine and within a month of Trump taking charge, it seems there is a complete reversal of the American position on Ukraine, indicating that Washington now wants Ukraine to accept Moscow's occupation of around 20% of its territory as well as the seizure of Crimea in 2014.

Given the direct US talks with Russia, it seems Ukraine will be reduced to a mere pawn on the diplomatic chessboard laid out by Trump and Putin. Trump's stance will also destabilise NATO and cause friction within the US because a strong segment of American society is against Russian expansionist policies and wants Moscow's total withdrawal from Ukraine. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy of Ukraine has made it clear that no unilateral moves will be acceptable to Kiev and there can be no peace with Russia unless it withdraws from all parts of Ukraine.

According to a report in The Guardian on Feb 18, "US and Russian officials agreed to explore the economic and investment opportunities that could arise for their countries from an end to the war in Ukraine after talks in Saudi Arabia that announced to a tectonic shift in Washington's approach to Moscow." Trump even dismissed Zelenskyy's concerns and blamed him for unleashing a war on Russia. Excluding Europe and Ukraine from the Riyadh talks which included US Secretary of State Mark Rubio and Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, Trump confirmed worst fears shared in America and Europe that Moscow would be obliged and provided space to the extent of jeopardising the US national security interests. Trump's age-old ambition to warm up ties with Putin at the expense of NATO and Ukraine is not a fallacy.

Blaming the Biden administration for messing up with the Ukraine war and providing billions of dollars of assistance to Kiev without proper audit, Trump wants Russia to secure its gains by sustaining its occupation of Crimea and parts of Eastern Ukraine. If Trump succeeds in his objective then not only will Putin's position as a war criminal, as declared by the ICC, be challenged, but Putin will also be encouraged to give a practical shape to Russia's expansionist ambitions in its neighborhood.

How NATO and Europe will deal with Trump's pro-Putin policies and withdrawal of American assistance to Ukraine depends on the unity of European leaders despite attempts made by Elon Musk to instigate populist ultra-right forces not hostile to Russia. The Guardian report further states, "It marked a dramatic break with the Biden administration's efforts to isolate Moscow. Russia's Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, and Putin's chief foreign policy adviser, Yuri Ushakov, were photographed sitting across Rubio, who attended the talks alongside the US national security adviser, Mike Waltz, and Steve Witkoff, Trump's special envoy to the Middle East." It shows that Ukraine, the pawn, will be coerced to accept a deal between Putin and Trump to the advantage of Moscow.

One needs to analyse Ukraine's relegation as a pawn from three sides.

First, if Trump tries to impose a deal on Ukraine while negotiating with Russia, it can cause a sharp divide within the US. Blaming Zelenskyy for starting the war instead of condemning Putin for committing aggression against a sovereign state, Trump is putting American national security at stake. How Congress, Pentagon, CIA and State Department will deal with the Trump-Putin courtship is yet to be seen. But certainly, he will not get a free hand from power centres to let Russia get away with Ukrainian territories, including Crimea. Europe, which has still not recovered from Vance's attack at the Munich meet, will need to put its own house in order and counter Russian ambitions in Ukraine with unity. It will, however, be highly difficult for Trump to withdraw from NATO. Critics dismiss Trump's allegation that assistance worth several billion dollars to Ukraine was misused. Striking a deal with Russia over Ukraine and with Israel over Gaza reflects Trump's mindset as a real estate icon and head of an oligarchic system.

Second, the US-Russia meeting in Riyadh not only marginalised Ukraine but also Europe. The US State Department after the meeting announced that the two sides decided to appoint "respective high level teams to begin working on a path to ending the conflict in Ukraine as soon as possible." Since 2014 when Russia occupied Crimea, an integral part of Ukraine, the West excluded Moscow from G8 and embarked on a policy to isolate Putin. Now, the US has taken a U-turn under the Trump administration by ending isolation of Russia. Trump is trying to rehabilitate Putin who is viewed as a persona non grata and implicated by the ICC in war crimes. On Sept 23, 2023, the ICC issued Putin's arrest warrant on the charges of genocide in Ukraine, but the Trump administration has no regard for the ICC verdict. He is blaming Zelenskyy for not ending the war and calling him a "dictator" in power without holding elections.

Finally, forcing a deal to end the war in Ukraine without the consent of Kiev would be counter-productive and destabilise the world order. So far the US has provided $350 billion to Ukraine since its war with Russia began three years ago. Europe has also provided $100 billion to Ukraine. Thus a total of $450 billion have been granted to Kiev, enabling it to prevent further Russian annexation of Ukrainian territory.

A win-win solution requires Moscow's withdrawal from the occupied Ukrainian territories, including Crimea, as well as Kiev's assurance that it will not join NATO. Already, the war has devastated Ukraine, besides causing colossal military losses to Russia. The US must prevail over Putin to return the Ukrainian territories occupied by Russia since 2014 instead of forcing Kiev to accept Moscow's aggression and its occupation of Ukrainian territories.