Europe's right-wing wave: A political shift or the new status quo?

The writer is a debater, aspiring activist with an interest in law and international politics, currently in A Levels.

Europe is experiencing a historically unprecedented political change. Once ruled by left-wing social democrats that established extensive welfare systems and defended workers’ rights, the ideological terrain of the continent is increasingly tilting to the right. Recent election results across the continent, complemented by opinion surveys at national levels have revealed the magnitude of this movement.

Something that was confined to the periphery of the political scene is increasingly migrating to the mainstream, compelling centrist and traditional conservative forces to confront a growing radicalized status quo. Is this turn to the right a short-term response to the crises of the present time, or the start of a sustained ideological realignment?

The decline of the Left is no sudden aberration or election loss—it is a gradual change of structure driven by the very forces the Left traditionally represented. Social democracy's "golden age," with Left parties creating and sustaining strong welfare regimes, was buttressed by a rooted industrial working class held together by trade unionism and shared economic struggle. However, globalization, automation, and the advent of the "precariat"—the rootless, economically vulnerable group of gig workers, service employees, and part-timers—began to erode the social solidarity that had made the politics of class possible.

The collapse of the traditional left is most obvious at the ballot box. In France, the Socialists have declined to the status of a minor player that no longer registers with the voters. The support base of the Dutch Labor Party dropped from 25% to a mere 6%. Germany’s Social Democrats have increasingly been outflanked by the far-right Alternative für Deutschland (AfD). The economic crisis of the late 2000s accelerated the decline, but the root of the issue is that the traditional working-class base of the traditional left either disappeared or no longer sees traditional left-wing parties as their representatives.

Adding to all this is the internal fragmentation of the left. Where leftist parties had a shared economic vision at one time, they are split nowadays between traditional social democrats espousing state interventionism and principles of redistribution, and liberal progressives espousing identity politics, green causes, and globalization. The latter speaks to the youthful, urban, well-educated voters, leaving the economically stressed, culturally conservatively oriented working classes without a political home to go to.

The right’s surge is not a change of government—it is a rebellion against globalization, elite policymaking, and sped-up cultural change. From the entire continent of Europe, forces of nationalism have portrayed themselves as the custodians of sovereignty, culture, and economic protectionism amid a feeling of increasing instability. The Freedom Party of Austria (FPÖ) posted its best election results since the war on the back of fears of immigration. Marine Le Pen’s National Rally is the dominant opposition movement in France, while Giorgia Meloni’s Brothers of Italy, a historically neo-fascist movement, dominates the government of Italy by combining economic protectionism with hardline nationalism.

The collapse of the "cordon sanitaire"—the informal understanding between centrist parties to shun far-right groups—has perhaps been the most striking aspect of this change. Once politically off-limits, these groups are now mainstream. The ruling center-right bloc of the EU, the European People’s Party (EPP), has had to turn to the support of the nationalist and Eurosceptic groups to retain power. Even the head of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen softened the commission’s approach to working with parts of the radical right earlier this year, a sign of the normalization of such politics at a deeper level.

The ascent of the right-wing populist forces across the entire continent of Europe is no random movement, no work of charismatic individuals surfing the waves of public discontent. It is the culmination of a convergence of deep economic fears, culture clashes, and political alienation that have brewed for decades. Mainstream traditional parties have not managed to accommodate the emerging forces, leaving a vacuum that the forces of nationalism and populism have filled with ease. To fully appreciate this change, the major forces propelling this ideological change need to be understood.

The economic impact of the 2008 financial crisis together with the Eurozone’s austerity measures had resulted in a generalized disillusionment with centrist government. Europe has experienced rapid demographic and cultural shifts over the past two decades, driven in large part by immigration and the integration of diverse communities. Many working-class voters, particularly those in rural and post-industrial areas, feel that their cultural identity is under siege. The European Union is being increasingly accused of being a meddling bureaucracy out of touch with the common man. Brussels is being seen to impose the decisions upon the government of the countries without the will of the people, leaving the voters feeling that they are being denied their sovereignty by their countries.

The right-wing wave sweeping through Europe has profound global ramifications. The EU, once a beacon of liberal democracy, now faces an uncertain future as far-right nationalist governments challenge the bloc’s authority. The increasing prominence of far-right parties within European institutions threatens to paralyze decision-making and weaken the continent’s collective response to crises.

Is this a populist response to economic and cultural upheavals, or the start of a new dominant political paradigm? Economic booms and policy change could resuscitate the left, but the deeper structures propelling this movement mean that the effect of the right will outlast them. If the left is to redefine itself—in terms of reclaiming the allegiance of working-class voters and being a robust antidote to nationalism—the present course could well crystallise into the new normal of the European polity.

Europe stands at a crossroads. The struggle to shape the future of the continent is no longer within the bounds of election cycles but is a struggle to redefine the very character of European government. Will liberal democracy change and mature, or will the forces of nationalist populism provide the ideological base? The decisions made within the next few years will shape the character of Europe for the next generation.