Asteroid may hit the moon instead of Earth: NASA

New data suggests asteroid 2024 YR4 may collide with the Moon, not Earth, in 2032.

Listen to article

An asteroid originally thought to have a higher chance of colliding with Earth might instead strike the Moon, according to new calculations.

NASA's Center for Near Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) had previously estimated that asteroid 2024 YR4 had a 2.3% chance of hitting Earth in 2032, up from about 1%.

However, recent data from University of Arizona astronomer David Rankin suggests a much slimmer 0.3% chance that the 90-meter-wide asteroid could impact the Moon.

The Moon’s lack of an atmosphere means that if the asteroid were to collide, it could create a crater several hundred meters wide, potentially sending debris into space.

Some of this debris could return to Earth, although scientists believe the risk of any major threat is minimal. "There is a possibility that some material could hit Earth, but I highly doubt it would cause any significant harm," Dr. Rankin told New Scientist.

The trajectory of 2024 YR4 remains uncertain, as it was first spotted on December 27 last year. NASA continues to study the asteroid, and scientists expect that future data could further reduce its chances of hitting Earth. "There have been several objects in the past that were initially flagged as high risk and later removed from the list as more data came in," NASA said, adding that new observations might eventually reassign the asteroid a risk rating of zero.

In the meantime, global space agencies are exploring ways to prevent potential collisions with hazardous asteroids like 2024 YR4. Some proposed methods include sending spacecraft to deflect the asteroid or using nuclear blasts to change its course. China has recently joined international efforts, announcing new positions for a "planetary defense post" to help monitor asteroids. Li Mingtao, a researcher at China's National Space Science Centre, emphasized the importance of developing a dedicated asteroid defense team. China also revealed plans to launch a mission around 2030 to study and possibly alter the path of an asteroid.

The asteroid 2024 YR4 will pass by Earth again in 2028, providing more opportunities for scientists to refine their predictions and better understand the likelihood of an impact in 2032.