Dry spell, haze and snowless phenomenon

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Rain, rain come again is the new rhythm in Islamabad and other winter-frenzy zones of the country. The capital city, once known for its chilling spell, is dry and hazy. There are no considerable reports of snowfall either and the Queen of Hills, Murree, is in a lackluster mood this year. The Galiyat, and the mountainous range henceforth of Swat, Kaghan Valley, Saiful Malook Lake, and up to Hunza is rough and barren, which is very unbecoming of conventional winter in these zones.

The southern belts of Punjab, likewise, are groped in smog, and Sindh is on the verge of another pestering drought. With rains falling below 52% this year, all we have is an irritating weather of sorts, plunging residents in a vicious circle of viral contamination. This is perhaps because of the climate change phenomenon, throwing open fears of a bad crop, a sustained dry season and spiral in food prices.

This ongoing spectacle of bruised weather is not new. The region had experienced a similar drought a few years ago, which horrifyingly gave way to disastrous floods in 2022. It is also to be noted that the monsoon pattern is changing over the horizons of Pakistan for the last many years, and incursions from Arabian Sea, Siberian winds and clouds from the north are getting wayward and unpredictable.

Ecologists are of the view that Pakistan is on the verge of a drier, humid and mercurial season, impacting seasonal crops, especially rice and wheat cultivation. With a new trend of harvesting more sugarcane at the expense of traditional crops, as the sweetener produce is more profitable and has a cartel behind it, the country has seen a decline in wheat and cotton produce, alike. This new congruency on the part of land-wielding classes calls for a thorough study, as well as a policy, to save indigenous agriculture from going extinct.

While climate change has become a buzzword, and billions are being spent on its mega get-togethers, it invites introspection on whether Pakistan has a policy on it or not! A simple answer is mired in confusion. It goes without saying that Pakistan is on the receiving end and changing weather trends are an indicator of the worst to come. At the moment Pakistan is on the map of glacier melting, glacier lake outburst floods (GLOFs), and unpredictable monsoon rainfall.

It is an enigma that the countrymen having contributed less than one per cent to global greenhouse gas emissions are the worst recipient of climate change. This necessitates some out-of-the-box measures to ensure weather sustainability and the least that could be done to protect ecology is to go back to 'billion-tree' plantation, building of water reservoirs, mechanising agriculture and increasing per acre yield production.

Pakistan has a tightrope to walk as its economy has nose-dived, political instability is at its peak and external environment too is demanding. In such a scenario, an adverse input from climate can be toiling, and skyrocketing food prices can stir social revulsion. At the same time, vested elements in the governance apparatus might axe their grind by flood-gating grain imports at the peril of precarious foreign exchange. That had been a convention, and should not be repeated in such dire circumstances.

With little or no control over Mother Nature, Pakistan has to keep its fingers crossed and focus astutely on the commitments it had made at the 2021 United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP 26) i.e. a 50% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions, shifting to 60% renewable energy, and 30% electric vehicles by 2030, along with a ban on coal imports and relying on nature-based solutions. That can make its journey a little smooth in averting warming of oceans, loss of species, pandemics and an irresistible drought.

Being an agriculture economy, a resilient master plan is desired to ward off food insecurity and mass displacement of folks on environmental exigencies. Use of technology for artificial rain is a viable option. If tangible efforts are not made, millions will be exposed to a new poverty trap - with 10 million souls already pushed under World Bank's New Poor classification in the last few years. Time to get real on the adaptability of nature and its consequences.