India-Afghan Taliban bonhomie

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On August 15, 2021 when Kabul fell to the Afghan Taliban without a single shot fired, an India diplomat posted in Islamabad admitted "Pakistan has defeated us". "Give credit where it is due," said the diplomat, quickly adding: "Pakistan's real test starts now." He was of the opinion that holding onto this advantage in Afghanistan in the long run would be a daunting task for Pakistan. His assessment was that Pakistan's jubilations would be short-lived.

Three and half years down the lane, his prediction has proved true. Contrary to Pakistan's expectations, the Taliban-ruled Kabul is no less than a nightmare for Islamabad and Rawalpindi. Hopes for friendly dispensation next door were diminished within months when Taliban began to assert themselves and refused to crack down on terrorist hideouts that have long posed a threat to Pakistan's security.

The debacle of the American-backed Ashraf Ghani administration in Kabul was a serious setback for India, which invested so much in the war-torn country to protect its interests in the region. After Ghani fled Kabul, India was left with no other option but to abandon Afghanistan. Years of investment in many infrastructure projects abruptly came to a halt. The last thing India wanted in Afghanistan was a pro-Pakistan Taliban government. People, perhaps, had never thought in their wildest imaginations that the Taliban government would turn out to be Pakistan's worst enemy and reach out to India.

Afghanistan and India have had a longstanding relationship but one group that New Delhi was always wary of was Taliban. India viewed the Afghan Taliban as no more than a Pakistan proxy. There is a history to this suspicion. During the first Taliban rule, an Indian Airline plane, en route to New Delhi from Kathmandu, was hijacked in 1999. After making stopovers in Amritsar, Lahore and Dubai, the hijacked plane finally landed in Taliban-controlled Kandahar. After seven days of negotiations, the Indian government capitulated to the demands of hijackers in return for the safety of passengers and crew. Post-2001, India often accused the Afghan Taliban of conducting attacks targeting its assets in Afghanistan. It was in this backdrop that India was very cautious in engaging with the Taliban.

But as they say in international relations, only interests are permanent, not friendship or enmity. Today, as Pakistan's relationship with the Afghan Taliban deteriorates, ties between New Delhi and Kabul are warming. Last week, Indian Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri met with Afghan Acting Foreign Minister Amir Khan Muttaqi in Dubai. This was the first high-level public contact between India and the Afghan Taliban. Two days prior to the meeting, New Delhi issued an unusual statement condemning airstrikes in Afghanistan – something that Pakistan denies. Meanwhile, the Taliban foreign minister termed India a "significant regional and economic partner". India is now contemplating to resume work on the development projects in Afghanistan that had been halted after the fall of Kabul to Taliban. New Delhi has also offered Kabul to use Iran's Chabahar Port for trade. A landlocked country, Afghanistan heavily relies on Pakistan for transit trade. But Kabul is now looking for routes to bypass Pakistan. India's ties with the Taliban are shaped by pragmatism rather than ideology. Maintaining a cautious approach, India seeks to safeguard its interests in Afghanistan, ensure regional stability, and counter the influence of rivals like Pakistan and China. The relationship is likely to remain complex, with a mix of cautious engagement and strategic balancing.

For Pakistan, it is time for serious introspection. The country has invested heavily in the Afghan Taliban, provided them sanctuaries, helped their families, and allowed them to set up businesses in Pakistan in the hope to enjoy strategic depth in a Taliban-controlled Afghanistan. But the outcome is exactly opposite. We made all the hard yards and when the crop is ready, someone else is set to enjoy the fruit.