Gaza war death toll likely undercounted, study reveals

59.1% of those killed in Gaza were women, children, and seniors, excluding missing.

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A study published in The Lancet medical journal has found that the death toll in Gaza from Israeli air and ground campaigns is likely underreported by 41 percent.

According to the analysis, conducted by researchers from the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, Yale University, and other institutions, the actual number of deaths in the first nine months of the conflict is significantly higher than the official figures.

As of June 30, 2024, the Palestinian Ministry of Health in Gaza, which is run by Hamas, reported a death toll of 37,877.

However, the new study used various data sources, including an online survey and social media obituaries, to estimate that the death toll from traumatic injuries ranged from 55,298 to 78,525.

The study’s best estimate put the death toll at 64,260, suggesting that the Palestinian Health Ministry had underreported the figures by 41 percent.

The study also highlighted that 59.1 percent of those killed were women, children, and people over the age of 65. It did not provide an estimate of Palestinian fighters among the casualties.

The deaths from traumatic injuries, however, do not include fatalities from a lack of healthcare or food, nor do they account for the thousands who are still missing and believed to be buried under rubble.

The study's estimate means that around 2.9 percent of Gaza's pre-war population, or approximately one in 35 residents, had died due to the conflict.

The Palestinian Health Ministry’s ability to maintain accurate electronic death records has deteriorated significantly due to Israel’s military campaign, which has included raids on hospitals and attacks on healthcare infrastructure.

As of Thursday, health officials in Gaza reported that several hospitals, including Al-Aqsa, Nasser, and European hospitals, are at risk of closure due to Israeli attacks and blockades, while other facilities, such as the Kamal Adwan, Indonesian, and al-Awda hospitals, have already been forced to shut down.

Hani Mahmoud, reporting from Al-Aqsa Hospital in Deir el-Balah, noted that many deaths in northern Gaza are going unreported, as bodies are buried in homes or streets due to the difficulty in reaching overwhelmed hospitals.

“The entire healthcare system in the northern part of the Strip is out of service, without any proper mechanism for recording the number of casualties in the area,” he said. Mahmoud also reported an acute shortage of medical supplies, including surgical tools, antibiotics, and painkillers at the Al-Aqsa Hospital, which is currently dealing with a surge of injured civilians, many of them women and children.

Tareq Abu Azzoum, reporting from Deir-el Balah, stated that Israeli military operations are intensifying, with bulldozing of residential homes continuing around the Al-Awda Hospital.

He said, “Medical teams in al-Awda Hospital continue to report that the Israeli army is going on with bulldozing all residential homes in the vicinity of the hospital amid more deterioration taking place among medical cases left there.”

While Israel maintains that it takes significant precautions to avoid civilian casualties and accuses Hamas of using hospitals as cover for military operations, Hamas has denied these claim