President Biden to determine fate of Nippon Steel's $15b bid for US Steel

The deal faces opposition from unions and concerns over national security risks.

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The $15 billion bid by Japan’s Nippon Steel for US Steel has been referred to President Joe Biden for a final decision, a White House spokesperson confirmed.

The Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States (CFIUS), which reviews foreign investments for national security risks, could not reach a consensus on the deal and passed it on to Biden, giving him 15 days to block the merger.

If Biden does not take action, the deal could proceed despite his previous opposition.

CFIUS, which has been reviewing the proposed acquisition, raised concerns about potential risks to national security, specifically the possibility of reduced domestic steel production, which it views as critical to infrastructure and defense.

The committee's assessment was detailed in a letter sent earlier this week, stating that allowing Nippon Steel to take over U.S. Steel might hurt the supply of steel for key transportation, construction, and agricultural projects.

Nippon Steel has proposed remedies to address these concerns, including appointing U.S. citizens to senior management and board positions at U.S. Steel. However, CFIUS was divided on whether these steps would effectively mitigate the national security risks.

Ryunosuke Shibata, an analyst at SBI Securities, described U.S. Steel as "a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity" for Nippon Steel, pointing to the increasing demand for domestic steel in the U.S. and high global steel prices driven by production shortfalls. The U.S. is currently the only developed nation where domestic steel demand is on the rise.

The opposition to the deal has been significant, with both President Biden and former President Donald Trump criticizing the merger, particularly as it relates to union voters in Pennsylvania, where U.S. Steel is headquartered.

The president of the United Steelworkers Union has also voiced strong opposition to the deal.

Nick Wall, M&A partner at Allen & Overy, noted the uncertainty surrounding Biden’s decision, stating, "The question is, what will Biden's decision be? And I think that's still very unpredictable. He's got nothing really to lose."

Despite the opposition, Nippon Steel made a strong case during the 90-day review process, arguing that its investment, as a company from an allied nation, would enhance U.S. Steel's output.

In a letter sent to CFIUS, Nippon Steel stated that its involvement would bolster U.S. steel production, helping to secure the country's industrial capacity.

However, CFIUS sent a 29-page letter last weekend, which Reuters exclusively reported, outlining unresolved national security concerns. This raised doubts about the deal's future. Nippon Steel and U.S. Steel responded with a follow-up letter, claiming that Biden had "impermissible influence" over the review process and threatened legal action if the deal were blocked.

A White House spokeswoman, Saloni Sharma, confirmed that the evaluation from CFIUS would be reviewed by President Biden. "We received the CFIUS evaluation and the President will review it," she said.

If the deal fails to gain approval, Nippon Steel will face a penalty of $565 million under the terms of the agreement. Nippon Steel has previously indicated that it could take legal action against the U.S. government should the merger be blocked.

Nippon Steel’s goal with the acquisition is to increase its global steel production capacity from 65 million tons to 85 million tons per year. The deal is central to its long-term objective of raising production to more than 100 million tons annually.