Turkey poised to shape Syria's energy future after Assad regime collapse

Under Assad’s rule, Syria’s key oil and gas fields were largely outside the control of the central government

Experts say Türkiye's role in regional energy security will significantly increase following the collapse of Syria’s 61-year Baath regime, marking a new phase for the region. This shift brings renewed attention to how Türkiye will shape its energy security policies moving forward.

Under Bashar al-Assad’s rule, Syria’s key oil and gas fields were largely outside the control of the central government, forcing Damascus to rely on Iran for fuel supplies. This dynamic is expected to change with the fall of the Assad regime.

"Iran won’t be able to supply oil and its derivatives to Syria after the fall of the Assad regime," said Kate Dourian, a non-resident fellow at the Arab Gulf States Institute in Washington. Last year, Iran supplied Syria with around 80,000 barrels per day (bpd) of oil.

Dourian suggested that Türkiye could step in to fill the gap, noting Ankara’s influence with Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), the group that led the anti-regime forces towards Damascus. She added, "Türkiye could provide fuel to Syria. With Ankara's influence in Syria, it will likely be involved in the reconstruction effort and have political sway with the new leadership."

Declining oil output and opportunities for Turkish companies

Syria’s oil output has significantly decreased due to years of internal turmoil. Before the 2011 uprising, Syria produced around 383,000 barrels of oil and 8.9 million cubic metres of natural gas daily. By 2022, that number had fallen to just 93,000 bpd. This decline has made Syria increasingly reliant on Iranian energy supplies.

Dourian noted that hydrocarbons had accounted for around a quarter of Syria's revenues before the war but were severely impacted by the loss of control over key oil fields to groups like Daesh and the PKK/PYD (Syrian Democratic Forces, SDF). Additionally, Assad’s exclusive rights agreement with Russia to revive Syria’s oil and gas sectors has stalled, largely due to US sanctions.

“There is an opportunity for Turkish energy companies to step in and revive oil and gas production, which would generate revenues to help with the reconstruction effort,” Dourian said. However, she added that this would require an inclusive political settlement and a stable government capable of negotiating with foreign partners, a process that could take time.

Syria’s geopolitical energy significance

Haydar Oruc, a Türkiye-based Middle East researcher, explained that Syria’s importance in energy geopolitics comes not so much from its own resources, but from its strategic location along key east-west and north-south energy corridors. Oruc highlighted projects such as the Arab Natural Gas Pipeline, which aims to transport Egyptian natural gas to Türkiye via Jordan, Lebanon, and Syria, ultimately reaching Europe.

Syria’s strategic position has remained underutilised due to the ongoing civil war, forcing neighbouring countries to seek alternative energy routes.

 Energy cooperation and reconstruction

With the anticipated change in Syria’s administration, Oruc believes Türkiye will continue to provide support to the Syrian people, as it has over the past decade. He expects reconstruction efforts to begin once state institutions are restored. Oruc also pointed to opportunities for energy cooperation, particularly in the Eastern Mediterranean, where energy extraction could be explored.

"Once Syria’s energy resources are freed from the control of terrorist organisations, and if requested by the new Syrian administration, Türkiye stands ready to offer all possible support for Syria’s reconstruction, including enhancing existing energy resources and developing new ones," Oruc concluded.