New beginning – hopes and fears

Syrian rebels overthrow Assad after lightning offensive; new leaders face challenges of rebuilding and stability.

BEIRUT:

Syrian rebels have toppled President Bashar al-Assad after a lightning offensive which in under two weeks has seen major cities slip from government's fingers, culminating in rebels capturing the capital Damascus on Sunday.

Analysts warn that when the celebrations fade, Syria's new leaders will face the daunting task of trying to deliver stability to a diverse country with competing factions that will need billions of dollars in aid and investments to rebuild.

Syria's long civil war, which erupted in 2011 as an uprising against Assad's rule, turned cities to rubble and killed hundreds of thousands of people. Stakeholders in the war ranged from Turkey to the United States to Islamists to Kurds.

In the war's early years, experts said, a combination of casualties, defections and draft-dodging saw the military lose around half of its 300,000-strong force. At the end, Assad's army was little more than a hollow shell, as soldiers repeatedly evacuating positions across the country.

"Since 2011, Syria's army has faced attrition in manpower, equipment and morale," said David Rigoulet-Roze of the French Institute for International and Strategic Affairs. Underpaid soldiers had reportedly looted resources to survive, and many young men have evaded conscription, he told AFP.

On Wednesday, Assad ordered a 50% raise in career soldiers' pay, but with Syria's economy in tatters, soldiers' salaries are almost worthless. The army has not officially commented since Damascus fell to the rebels, according to various news outlets.

Assad heavily relied on military, political and diplomatic support from key allies Russia and Iran. With their help, he had clawed back territory lost after in conflict with the repression of anti-government protests, and Russia's 2015 intervention with air power changed the tide of the war in his favour.

But last month's rebel offensive came as Russia remains mired in its war in Ukraine, and its air strikes this time failed to hold back the Islamist-led rebels who swept up swathes of territory including major cities Aleppo, Hama, Homs and finally Damascus.

Aron Lund, a fellow at the Century International think tank, told AFP that "the main factor" in the rebels' success was "regime weakness and reduced international assistance to Assad". He added that rebel leader Abu Mohammed al-Jolani's "work on building up institutions and centralising much of the rebellion under his own control is also a big part of the story".

For the West now, one possible challenge could be a resurgence of Islamic State which imposed a reign of terror in large swathes of Syria and Iraq and directed external operations during its prime, the analysts believed.

Western governments, which have shunned the Assad-led state for years, must now decide how to deal with a new administration in which a globally designated terrorist group – al-Jolani's Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) – looks set to have influence.

The HTS, which spearheaded the rebel advances across western Syria, was formerly an al Qaeda affiliate until al-Jolani severed ties with the global jihadist movement in 2016. However, some Syrians remain fearful it will impose draconian rules or instigate reprisals.

A former US military commander of American forces in the Middle East, retired Marine General Frank McKenzie, said he was concerned about the way ahead for Syria. "We could have an Islamic state arise there which will have profound negative implications across the region. That is possible," he said.

Prime Minister Ghazi al-Jalali called for free elections in a country. Jalali also said that he had been in contact with the rebel leader Jolani to discuss managing the transitional period, marking a notable development in efforts to shape Syria's political future.

The Syrian civil war dragged in a string of outside powers, created space for jihadist militants to plot attacks around the world and sent millions of refugees into neighbouring states. The frontlines were dormant for years but then Islamists suddenly burst into action in late November.

Countries like the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Egypt, both close US allies, see the militant groups as an existential threat, so the HTS might face resistance from the regional heavyweights. Saudi Arabia said on Sunday it stands by Syrian people and their choices at this "critical stage".

UN Special Envoy for Syria Geir Pedersen underscored the clear desire expressed by millions of Syrians that stable and inclusive transitional arrangements are put in place, a statement said. He urged all Syrians to prioritise dialogue, unity, and respect for international humanitarian law and human rights.