Marching rebels

Syrian rebels' resurgence has taken key cities from Assad, while Russia's focus on Ukraine leaves Assad vulnerable.

Syrian rebels have made an astounding comeback in the country's civil war, taking large swathes of territory including key cities within days. Some 250 cities, towns and villages, including Aleppo and Hama, have fallen in the last week. Adding to the woes of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, Russia may no longer be available to provide the kind of support it did the last time around, when various rebel groups were routed.

Several Syria experts have noted that Assad's regime has actually been on shaky ground for several years, as the civil war never really ended - it had only hit a stalemate and lost international media attention. The stalemate was enough for Assad to be welcomed back into the Arab League and be invited on tours of regional powers after almost a decade as a pariah. But the underlying problems remained. Syria's economy was still in trouble, and remained so despite the cessation of hostilities. Its currency had fallen almost 1,200% against the dollar since 2020, even before the fighting renewed. The country's GDP fell from a prewar high of $252 billion to just $9 billion in 2021, and the government is allegedly reliant on illicit production and smuggling of the stimulant Captagon to keep money coming in.

In recent months, Russia's disastrous invasion of Ukraine reportedly forced it to reroute its assistance to the Slavic warzone, while Iran has had its own economic and foreign policy problems to deal with, creating an opening for the rebels to exploit. News reports also say the rebels are significantly more formidable than the country's armed forces, both in terms of equipment and training. Experts have gone as far as crediting government-allied militias as being superior to the actual army. However, militias can also quickly shift loyalties, depending on which way the wind blows. Israel has already initiated at least two cross-border conflicts, which could become all-out wars. Civil wars in Libya and Yemen regularly spill over into neighbouring countries. If the war in Syria spills over any further, the Middle East may enter its most dangerous period in modern history.