Russia updates nuclear doctrine as tensions with US escalate over Ukraine

Analysts said the doctrine change aimed to signal a red line for the West, marking Putin's stance on escalation

Russian President Vladimir Putin on Tuesday lowered the threshold for a nuclear strike in response to a broader range of conventional attacks just days after the White House reportedly allowed Ukraine to fire American missiles deep into Russia.

Russia has been warning the West for months that if Washington allowed Ukraine to fire US, British and French missiles deep into Russia then Moscow would consider those NATO members to be directly involved in the war in Ukraine.

The updated Russian nuclear doctrine, which sets out a framework for the conditions under which Putin could order a strike from the world's biggest nuclear arsenal, was approved by Putin on Tuesday, according to a published decree.

Analysts said the biggest change was that Russia could consider a nuclear strike in response to a conventional attack on Russia or ally Belarus that "created a critical threat to their sovereignty and (or) their territorial integrity".

"The big picture is that Russia is lowering the threshold for a nuclear strike in response to a possible conventional attack," said Alexander Graef, a senior researcher at the Institute for Peace Research and Security Policy at the University of Hamburg.

The previous doctrine, set out in a 2020 decree, said Russia may use nuclear weapons in case of a nuclear attack by an enemy or a conventional attack that threatened the existence of the state.

Lower threshold

In a clear reference to Ukraine and the United States, the doctrine said any attack by a non-nuclear power supported by a nuclear power would be considered a joint attack. Any attack by one member of a military bloc would be considered an attack by the entire alliance, it said.

Ukrainian media reported that a US ATACMS missile had been fired into Russia for the first time. Reuters was unable to immediately verify those reports. The Kremlin said the Russian military was monitoring the situation very closely.

On the 1000th day of the Ukraine war, Russia also included a broader definition of the data that could be used to indicate Russia was under mass attack from aircraft, cruise missiles and unmanned aircraft.

The war in Ukraine is entering what some Russian and Western officials say could be its final - most dangerous - phase after Moscow's forces advance at their fastest pace since the early weeks of the conflict and the West ponders how the war will end.

Together, Russia and the US control 88% of the world's nuclear warheads. Putin is Russia's primary decision-maker on the use of Russia's nuclear arsenal.

Safe-haven assets such as government bonds, the Japanese yen and gold bounced sharply after the publication of Russia's updated doctrine.

War

Russian diplomats say the current crisis is comparable to the 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis when the two Cold War superpowers came closest to intentional nuclear war, and caution that the West is making a grave mistake if it thinks Russia will back down over Ukraine.

The Kremlin said Russia considered nuclear weapons as a means of deterrence and that the aim of the updated text was to make absolutely clear to potential enemies the inevitability of retaliation should they attack Russia.

"Now the danger of a direct armed clash between nuclear powers cannot be underestimated, what is happening has no analogues in the past, we are moving through unexplored military and political territory," said Sergei Ryabkov, Russian deputy foreign minister who oversees arms control and US relations.

The main changes to the nuclear doctrine had been flagged by Putin in September. Analysts said at the time that the change to the doctrine was an attempt by Putin to draw a red line for the West.

Asked if the publication of the decree was linked to the White House's decision on allowing Ukraine to fire US missiles deep into Russia, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said the doctrine had been published in a "timely manner".

"Nuclear deterrence is aimed at ensuring that a potential adversary understands the inevitability of retaliation in the event of aggression against the Russian Federation and/or its allies," Peskov said.

The United States in 2022 was so concerned about the possible use of tactical nuclear weapons by Russia that it warned Putin over the consequences of using such weapons, according to Central Intelligence Agency Director Bill Burns.