Trump 2.0

Trump’s surprise landslide victory reshapes US policy, with bold moves on tariffs, Ukraine, and Israel.

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Either US pollsters do not have the right methodology or they have deliberately misled the public about the outcome of the US presidential election 2024. Surveys after surveys predicted a knife-edge race between Republican candidate Donald Trump and Democratic nominee Kamala Harris.

In fact, as per pre-election polls, Trump was trailing behind Kamala in overall popular vote. But when the polling ended on November 5, within two hours of the counting it was clear that Trump was heading for a landslide.

He not only won the traditional Republican leaning Red States but also swept what were known as battleground or swing states. Not just white Americans but Latinos, blacks, Muslims and people of other colours voted for Trump.

Michigan, one of the battleground states, flipped from blue to Trump. Michigan is the state where the US has more Muslim voters than any other state. Kamala was defeated hands down there as Muslim voters showed distrust in her and President Joe Biden's policy towards Israel.

Trump is also a friend of Israel but many Arab Americans feel that his administration's approach towards Israel would, perhaps, be different than Biden's.

Trump's victory is also extraordinary in that people voted for him despite the fact that he has often been called out for fake news and conspiracy theories. For example, in the only presidential debate Trump had with Kamala, the former claimed that illegal immigrants were eating pets.

That story was debunked promptly by the moderators and other officials, yet his supporters believed in him. So, here we are - another Trump's presidency. This time, many American pundits feel Trump is better prepared than his first term.

He, along with his transition team, is already finalising names for the cabinet. Some of the prominent names that may join the Trump administration include Elon Musk, one of the richest men on earth.

So, what should we expect of Trump this time, given that he not only won the presidential election but Republicans got hold of the Senate and House of Representatives?

The current Supreme Court is also dominated by conservative and Republican leaning judges. This means that Trump will have no real checks this time and many believe that he will implement his policy much faster.

Known as an outsider, Trump brings on the table an element of unpredictability. However, he has announced certain policy measures that he intends to implement during his second term. Trump said "tariff" is his favourite word. He planned to impose 10 to 20 per cent import tariffs on all goods destined for the US. He wants to target China in particular with tariff increases of up to 60 per cent.

If he implements his plan, it will shake the global economy. One western diplomat recently told me that his country's GDP would lose by 1 per cent if Trump went ahead with the tariff imposition.

On the foreign policy front, Trump has promised an end to the Ukraine-Russia conflict within 24 hours. He indicated that for this to happen he would not mind Ukraine conceding some territory to Russia. This is a worrying development for Europeans, which consider the Ukraine war as an existential threat.

The incoming President also wants to cut security assistance for NATO and believes in America-first approach. On the Middle East, Trump during his election rallies said the Israeli Prime Minister had time until January to finish the job.

He plans to revive the Abraham Accord, an initiative he launched during his first term to broker a deal between the Arab world and Israel.

Meanwhile, Pakistan has lost its relevance to Washington, and is unlikely to be on the foreign policy priority list of Trump. Pakistan can find itself in a tight spot if Trump ratchets up tensions with neighbouring Iran and China.

But one American commentator has an interesting take. He is of the opinion that while the world fears the worst, Trump may even spring a major surprise by offering an olive branch to China, ending wars in Ukraine and the Middle East.