The most 'consequential' US election

In a close US election race, swing states hold the key as Harris and Trump face off with global stakes.

Around 240 million Americans are set to elect their new President in what is billed as the most consequential election in the American history. With only 24 hours left until the polling day, there are no clear winners in the pre-poll surveys. Democratic candidate Kamala Harris may be marginally ahead in the national surveys but her rival Republican Donald Trump is in the lead in battleground or swing states.

The US presidential election is unique in many ways. President is elected indirectly, meaning it is possible a losing candidate may get more popular votes. In 2016, Hillary Clinton was polled 3 million more votes than her rival, Donald Trump. The reason for this is that the winner is not the person who gets the most votes across the country. Instead, both candidates compete to win contests held across the 50 states. Each state is allocated a certain number of Electoral College votes based on population. There are a total 538 Electoral College votes up for grabs and the winner needs 270 or more votes to reach the White House. All but two states have winner-takes-all rule, so whichever candidate wins the highest number of votes is awarded all of the state's Electoral College votes. Although around 240 million voters decide their future president, in reality only a handful of voters actually make the real difference. Most states lean heavily towards one party or the other, so the focus is usually on a dozen or so states where either of them could win. These are known as battleground or swing states. So, the 2024 race for the White House in fact comes down to seven swing states including Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. In 2016, Trump managed to stage an upset in winning the most swing states but the tables were turned in 2020 when Biden wrestled the control back to Democrats. Pre-poll opinions indicate that Trump is ahead but with a barest of margins in at least 5 of the 7 swing states.

Elections in the US matter not only to the Americans but beyond their shores. For ordinary Americans, like people in any other country, economy, inflation and cost of living remain the most prime issues in these polls. But for the outside world, it is the foreign policy of the new administration that matters the most. Both friends and foes of the US are anxiously waiting for the outcome of the election. Win for Kamala Harris means continuation of traditional US foreign policy. But the return of Trump is something everyone is most concerned about. The former US President, unlike other American leaders, has his own world vision, one which is not necessarily in sync with the American core interests or the US deep state. For example, Trump has threatened to cut aid to NATO and withdraw US support for Ukraine. His unpredictable nature means that there won't be business as usual on the global stage when it comes to the American foreign policy. While Trump and Kamala may have divergent views on many issues, they are on the same page when it comes to China. Both consider the rise of China as a threat to the US hegemony. This means no matter who wins, the US would continue to prop up India as bulwark against China's rise.

Pakistan, meanwhile, has lost its relevance in the eyes of Washington particularly after the US withdrawal from Afghanistan in August 2021. During the Trump's first term, the US blocked all security and civilian aid to Pakistan, accusing it of playing a double game in the fight against terrorism. President Biden too gave little importance to Islamabad as one can gauge from the fact that he never spoke to any Pakistani Prime Minister since becoming the President. Trump, nevertheless, developed a personal chemistry with now jailed former PM Imran Khan. He invited him to the White House and met him on a few occasions subsequently. That is why many PTI fans believe Trump's return to the White House could change the fortunes of their incarcerated leader. Whether or not that happens, only time will tell. One thing is, however, certain: Trump's win would lead us into unchartered territories.