In a recent Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa Poll, US Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris has overtaken Republican Donald Trump among likely Iowa voters, a state Trump previously won with ease in 2016 and 2020.
Conducted between October 28-31 with 808 likely voters, the poll shows Harris leading Trump by 47% to 44%, though the 3.4 percentage point margin of error makes this lead narrow. This represents a shift from a previous September poll, which had Trump ahead by four points.
According to the Register, the change is largely due to increased support for Harris among women, particularly older and politically independent voters. Trump’s past wins in Iowa were by margins of over nine points in 2016 and eight points in 2020.
In response, the Trump campaign dismissed the poll as an "outlier" in a memo from their lead pollster and data consultant, pointing to a separate Emerson College poll released the same day.
The Emerson poll, conducted November 1-2 with a similar sample size and margin of error, showed Trump leading Harris by 10 points. This poll indicated that Trump had strong support from men and independents, while Harris was popular among voters under 30.
On a national scale, Harris and Trump remain closely matched as Election Day approaches. With early voting already underway, both campaigns are targeting key battleground states, including North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin. Iowa offers six Electoral College votes out of the 270 required to win the presidency.
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