Indo-Pak ties: the illusion of diplomacy at SCO Summit

Jaishankar's visit to Pakistan highlights diplomatic formalities, not a thaw in India-Pakistan relations.

The recent Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) summit in Pakistan has been touted by some as a diplomatic breakthrough, with Indian Foreign Minister S Jaishankar's visit sparking speculation of renewed dialogue between the two long-estranged neighbours. But beneath this superficial optimism lies a stark reality - Jaishankar's presence in Islamabad was not a sign of thawing relations but a mere formality, driven by the obligations of international diplomacy. To frame his visit as a milestone in India-Pakistan relations is to misread the tea leaves.

India's motives for attending the summit were not grounded in any desire for reconciliation. Instead, New Delhi's focus was strategic. India has long been seeking trade access to Central Asia, but Pakistan, citing the ongoing Kashmir dispute, has consistently refused to grant India transit trade rights. For Pakistan, this refusal is about more than just Kashmir - it's about safeguarding its own economic ambitions in the region. Opening up to Indian trade would be a strategic misstep, allowing India to dominate Central Asia, a market Pakistan also covets.

Beyond trade, India's participation in the summit was also driven by its desire to counter China's growing influence in the region. As tensions between India and China escalate, India has no intention of allowing Beijing to dominate platforms like the SCO without competition. By attending, India ensured that China would not have free rein to push its regional agenda. While Pakistan chose diplomatic restraint by not spotlighting Kashmir, India used the opportunity to reiterate its opposition to China's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), which passes through Pakistan-administered Kashmir, a region India claims as its own.

India's objections to the BRI are not merely economic - they are deeply strategic. By opposing the project, India is not only challenging China's influence but also reinforcing its territorial claims on the global stage. This presents a major diplomatic hurdle for Pakistan, as India continues to assert its narrative on international platforms, subtly yet steadily chipping away at Pakistan's position on Kashmir.

Even though, to some observers, the absence of heated exchanges between India and Pakistan might suggest a softening of relations, this is more illusion than reality. Pakistan's internal political and economic turmoil has left it in a weakened position, unable to engage in diplomacy from a position of strength. Meanwhile, India, buoyed by its economic growth and international standing, has shifted its focus from Pakistan to China, which it now sees as its primary rival in the region.

India's stance remains unyielding: no dialogue with Pakistan unless Islamabad ends its support for Kashmiri separatists. On the other hand, Pakistan's demands for India to restore Kashmir's special status and halt its human rights violations in the region remain firm. Both nations are locked in a stalemate, with little hope for compromise on the horizon.

In the grand scheme of things, Jaishankar's visit was little more than a diplomatic obligation. It's akin to India occasionally using Pakistani airspace for international flights - practical, but not indicative of any deeper relationship. As long as both nations remain entrenched in their respective positions, the chances of a genuine breakthrough remain slim.

Presumably, diplomacy is often driven by mutual interest, and right now, neither India nor Pakistan sees enough value in making concessions. Pakistan, dealing with a serious economic crisis and political instability, is in no position to pressure India. Meanwhile, India, with its eyes on global competition, especially with China, has little reason to prioritise its relationship with Pakistan.

The SCO summit may have provided a brief diplomatic respite, but it is unlikely to change the longstanding realities of the relations between India and Pakistan. Until both sides find common ground, the diplomatic mirage of the SCO summit will remain just that - a mirage.