Kashmir: sham election

New Delhi has held elections in Occupied Kashmir for the first time since stripping the region of its special status, and the results have been nothing like what the BJP expected when they decided to violate UNSC resolutions to change the law. The revocation of Article 370 of the Indian Constitution in 2019 was aimed, among other things, at strengthening support for the BJP among voters with nationalist or radical Hindu tendencies, both in Kashmir and the rest of the country. But while the move did give the party a short-term boost, five years on, the same parties that were popular before the legal change have come back strongly, while the BJP, despite its best-ever showing in regional elections, still underperformed.

The alliance of National Conference and Congress will be forming the government, with the latter alone winning 42 seats in the 90-seat assembly. Congress has won six, giving the alliance at least 48 seats – against the BJP's 29 – and a few of the minor parties and independents are also expected to join. The BJP's 'strong' performance is also undercut by the fact that it has actively been trying to alter the demographics of the region through moves that would have been outright illegal under Article 370, and are still problematic under international law – due to the region's status as a disputed territory as well as the rampant rights abuses that the Muslim majority must face. Unfortunately, while the vote was most certainly a referendum on the BJP's policies, it will be mostly meaningless.

New Delhi has spent the last five years pulverising Kashmiris' rights, while ensuring that the major local political parties all know the thin pro-India framework within which they can work. This is why the most radical political party message appears to be for full statehood, rather than the public demand for a UN-back referendum on whether to join India or Pakistan, or seek independence. New Delhi has already made it clear that the new government will only have some control over education and culture, with other legislative authority remaining in New Delhi - lest the people start thinking they have a right to self-determination.