Mark Rutte takes charge of NATO amid Ukraine crisis

His appointment comes at precarious moment for NATO as Ukraine faces its third winter of conflict with Russia

Mark Rutte, the former Dutch prime minister, will officially assume the role of NATO Secretary General on Tuesday, October 1, 2024.

His appointment comes at a precarious moment for NATO, as Ukraine faces its third winter of conflict with Russia and continues to grapple with a brutal invasion.

Rutte, known for his straightforward style and extensive experience in coalition-building, will be tasked with navigating this critical period for the alliance.

At NATO headquarters in Brussels, Rutte will begin his tenure after a brief ceremony honoring the men and women who have served under the NATO banner over the past 75 years.

He replaces Jens Stoltenberg, NATO’s longest-serving secretary general, who leaves behind a significantly transformed alliance. Under Stoltenberg, NATO’s focus shifted from Afghanistan to bolstering its eastern flank in response to Russian aggression in Ukraine.

The alliance now reports tens of thousands of combat-ready troops on its eastern borders, a sharp contrast to the situation a decade ago when such defenses were virtually non-existent.

Despite this bolstered military presence, Ukraine remains in a difficult position, facing relentless Russian advances in its eastern territories.

While NATO and Western allies have pledged long-term support for Ukraine, critics argue that this support has been slow to materialize, particularly in the form of vital military supplies.

For example, delays in delivering ammunition have forced Ukraine to cede ground unnecessarily, according to former NATO ambassador Tomáš Valášek.

Western countries, despite their economic power, have been outpaced by Russia in terms of defense production, raising concerns about the efficacy of NATO's industrial response to the conflict.

At the Washington summit in July, NATO leaders promised €40 billion in minimum funding for Ukraine in 2025 and an “irreversible path” to NATO membership for the embattled country.

Rutte will be tasked with overseeing these commitments at the next NATO summit in The Hague in June 2025, while also managing Ukraine’s aspirations for NATO membership—a sensitive topic given the ongoing war.

A key challenge for Rutte will be addressing defense spending across NATO’s member states.

Although 23 of NATO's 32 members now meet the alliance’s target of spending 2% of GDP on defense, many countries have struggled to keep up with the demands of modern warfare.

Rutte’s own country, the Netherlands, was historically a laggard in defense spending, only meeting the 2% target shortly before his appointment.

As the alliance faces increasing threats, particularly from Russia, there is growing pressure for members to spend more.

In a farewell speech, Stoltenberg suggested that NATO members should consider spending “significantly more than 2%” of GDP on defense, with some discussions even suggesting targets of 3% or higher.

Rutte will need to balance these demands while maintaining credibility with both the United States and NATO’s eastern European members, who were initially lukewarm about his candidacy.

In addition to these challenges, Rutte must prepare NATO for potential political shifts in the United States, where former President Donald Trump remains a leading figure in the upcoming election.

Trump’s previous presidency saw tensions between the US and its NATO allies over defense spending, and his return could bring further challenges.

Rutte, however, has been dubbed the “Trump whisperer” for his ability to navigate the former president’s demands, having averted a near-crisis over defense budgets at the 2018 NATO summit.

Looking beyond the immediate concerns of the Ukraine conflict, Rutte will also need to address NATO’s stance on China.

During the July summit, NATO leaders named China as a “decisive enabler” of Russia’s aggression, although concrete actions against Beijing have yet to materialize.

Previously, it was reported Russia has established a weapons programme in China to develop and produce long-range attack drones for use in its war against Ukraine which NATO members dubbed as “deeply concerning” as they onsulted on the matter.

Furthermore, NATO military official stated Ukraine would have a valid military rationale for carrying out deeper strikes into Russia using Western-supplied weapons.

British Prime Minister Keir Starmer held talks with US President Joe Biden at the White House on Friday as Ukraine's allies deliberate on whether to authorise Kyiv's use of long-range missiles against Russian targets.

Russian President Vladimir Putin has warned that allowing Ukraine to strike with Western-made long-range missiles would equate to the West engaging in direct conflict with Russia. Speaking at a meeting in Prague of NATO's Military Committee, the alliance's highest military authority, Admiral Rob Bauer, the committee's chairman, noted that the law of armed conflict grants nations the right to self-defence, which is not confined to their borders.

As the US shifts its focus to the Indo-Pacific region, NATO will need to strengthen its partnerships with democracies in that area to remain relevant to Washington’s strategic interests.

Rutte, a veteran of European Union negotiations, may be well-suited to bridge the growing ambitions of EU defense initiatives with NATO’s traditional security role.

The EU is set to appoint its first defense commissioner, and cooperation between the two organizations will be crucial in areas such as cyber defense and air shield projects.

As Rutte takes the reins at NATO, his experience in coalition-building and diplomacy will be essential in navigating these complex and evolving challenges.

With the Ukraine war showing no signs of abating and geopolitical tensions rising, Rutte’s leadership will be pivotal in shaping NATO’s future and ensuring the alliance’s continued relevance on the global stage.