What’s next after Hassan Nasrallah’s assassination?

Minutes after Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu finished his speech at the UN General Assembly session on Friday evening, breaking news was flashing on all international media outlets—Israel conducted massive airstrikes in the suburbs of Beirut, the Lebanese capital.

People of Lebanon were used to Israeli airstrikes but Friday’s attacks were extraordinary. One local said he never saw such massive relentless bombing. When Israeli bunker buster missiles hit the Dahieh neighbourhood of South Beirut, the impact was so massive that it felt like an earthquake, another local resident told an international news channel.

Israel has been pounding targets with missile and drone strikes in Southern Lebanon for the past many days but attacks in Beirut were rare. Residential buildings that were hit were reduced to rubble. There were many casualties including women and children. Some were speculating that the Israeli strikes might have killed Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah but there was no confirmation or evidence on the ground. Initially sources close to Hezbollah claimed that Hassan Nasrallah was alive and safe.

However, on Saturday afternoon the Israeli military released a statement claiming the target of last night’s attack was Hassan Nasrallah and he was successfully “eliminated.” There was complete silence for several hours from Hezbollah, something that led many people to believe that Israel’s claims were true. Few hours later, Hezbollah confirmed the assassination of its chief.

Nasrallah, who became the group’s chief after the assassination of his predecessor in 1992, was known as a charismatic leader and had long been wanted by Israel. The Hezbollah chief was not seen in public for the last many years as he knew Israel was after him.

His assassination is seen as a massive moment in the ongoing hostilities in the Middle East and put the region ever so closer to the wider conflict.

“Assassination of Hezbollah leader Sheikh Hassan Nasrallah is the biggest blow to Hezbollah since the killing of his predecessor, Syed Abbas Mussawi, by Israel in 1992,” commented Senator Mushahid Hussain Sayed.

Senator Mushahid, who understands regional politics, warned that the situation in the region will be more volatile with an unending cycle of killings and violence.

“Anti-Israel sentiment in the region will rise. Hezbollah as the most powerful military force countering Israel will remain unfinished in this role as part of ‘Axis of Resistance’.”

Israel has carried out high-profile assassinations since the conflict began in October last year. The killing of Hamas Chief Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran shook the region and now the assassination of Hezbollah chief is seen as a major blow to Iran.

Tehran, until now, has watched from the fence the ongoing renewed conflict in the Middle East. Although it launched a barrage of missiles and rockets—mostly intercepted by Israel and its allies—after the Israeli strikes on its diplomatic mission in Damascus, it overall showed restraint from getting embroiled with Israel directly.

But the latest assassination of the Hezbollah chief may change the scenario.

Senator Mushahid, nevertheless, is not certain if Iran would go all-out against Israel.

“Having carefully read the message of Ayatollah Khamenei on this occasion, I feel Iran won’t get directly involved as his message urges all to ‘support Hezbollah in fighting the evil aggressor with all their resources’, so the onus has been put on the Hezbollah, also, Iran didn’t retaliate against the killing of Ismail Haniyeh.

The assassination of Hezbollah chief has raised the specter of wider regional conflict. “Yes, this is the closest that the region has come to the brink of all-out war, although I feel all-out war will be averted,” Senator Mushahid said.

The US has so far maintained it wants de-escalation and diplomacy to take precedence. Washington also claimed it had no prior knowledge of the Israeli strikes targeting Hassan Nasrullah.

The US has provided security assistance and other support to Israel but avoided getting involved directly in the conflict. But the US has made it clear that any direct involvement of Iran in the conflict would trigger a response from Washington.

That is another factor, according to many analysts, that Iran would resist direct conflict with Israel.

However, Israel’s stated goal of ensuring security of the Jewish state through these adventures may remain elusive. Hezbollah was the product of Israel’s invasion of Lebanon in 1978 to eliminate Palestinian Liberation Organisation (PLO). Israeli forces laid a siege to the Lebanese capital for almost three months, killing thousands of people. That barbarity led to the emergence of Hezbollah, which continued to challenge Israel.

What Israel has so far done in Gaza, the West Bank and now in Lebanon, experts say it would not be a surprise if Israel has to confront the new wave of resistance from the Palestinian and Lebanese group. One commentator said Hassan Nasrallah may be the most influential figure but at the end of the day he represented a movement that will not die with his death.