Minimal political change expected as Algerians head to presidential polls

As Algeria prepares for its upcoming presidential election, analysts are forecasting little to no significant change, with incumbent President Abdelmadjid Tebboune widely expected to secure a second term.

Despite initial interest from 15 candidates, only two—Abdelaali Hassani Cherif from the moderate Islamist Movement of Society for Peace and Youcef Aouchiche from the centre-left Socialist Forces Front (FFS)—managed to meet the stringent requirements to formally enter the race.

Candidates were required to secure 600 signatures of support from elected officials or gather 50,000 public endorsements from across the country, a hurdle that left many hopefuls unable to move forward.

With these two lesser-known challengers as the main competitors, political observers anticipate a smooth path to victory for Tebboune, 78, who has led the country since 2019.

According to Intissar Fakir, a senior fellow at the Middle East Institute, the candidacies of both Hassani and Aouchiche are not expected to present any major threats to the incumbent.

"Neither of the challengers has the political momentum or national support base needed to mount a serious challenge to Tebboune," Fakir explained, emphasizing that the president's dominance in Algeria’s political landscape remains strong.

Tebboune's presidency has been marked by a focus on economic reforms and attempts to stabilize the country’s political situation following years of protests and political unrest.

His government has faced criticism for clamping down on dissent and curbing freedoms, but his administration has remained largely unchallenged by organized opposition movements.

The current political environment in Algeria, characterized by limited opposition and a well-entrenched incumbent, suggests that this election is unlikely to lead to significant shifts in governance or policy direction.

While both Hassani and Aouchiche represent different ideological perspectives—Hassani from the Islamist-leaning Movement of Society for Peace and Aouchiche from the more progressive FFS—neither has garnered the widespread support needed to mount a serious challenge to the sitting president.

Algeria’s political framework, long dominated by the National Liberation Front (FLN) and the military establishment, has also played a role in limiting the scope of political competition.

As a result, this election appears to be a continuation of the status quo, with Tebboune poised to extend his rule and maintain his influence over the country’s political direction.

Though many Algerians have voiced frustrations over the limited choices in this election and concerns over the future of democratic freedoms in the country, the likelihood of a major political upheaval remains slim. With only two challengers able to meet the electoral criteria, the stage is set for

Tebboune to continue steering Algeria through its current political and economic challenges, likely with minimal opposition.

Observers expect the election to confirm Tebboune’s grip on power, as both his challengers struggle to gain momentum or significant public backing.