RFK Jr. ends campaign: Impact on 2024 election and what it means for Trump and Harris

Robert F. Kennedy Jr.'s independent campaign has ended, but the lingering question is whether his supporters mainly come from Republican or Democratic voters.

His support base has dwindled, with current polls from RealClearPolitics showing him at around 5%, down from the high teens a few months ago.

Despite this decline, Kennedy's supporters could still influence the November election, potentially affecting either Donald Trump or Kamala Harris. Experts attribute much of Kennedy’s drop to the renewed enthusiasm among Democrats for their new candidate, Vice-President Harris.

Merrill Matthews from the conservative Institute for Policy Innovation notes that the entry of Harris into the Democratic race has shifted the landscape, reducing interest in third-party candidates like Kennedy. Polls on third-party and independent candidates, including Jill Stein and Cornel West, offer mixed results on where Kennedy's support is directed. Some indicate it might benefit Republicans, others Democrats, with generally narrow margins.

Observers believe that a substantial portion of Kennedy’s progressive supporters may have returned to the Democratic party due to Harris’s rise. Matthews suggests that Kennedy's exit might give Trump a slight boost, though he doubts it will be significant given Kennedy's declining poll numbers.

Kennedy plans to withdraw his name from ballots in swing states where he believes his presence could harm Trump. Despite being from a prominent Democratic family, Kennedy used his exit speech to criticize the party and clashed with its establishment during his campaign. His support for Trump may reinforce the notion that he is a spoiler, a view held by some of his critics.

Melissa Smith, author of Third Parties, Outsiders, and Renegades, speculates that Kennedy’s campaign will be seen as a minor historical footnote and may not have a lasting impact on the race. With over two months until the election, his campaign’s influence could quickly diminish, especially with the ongoing unpredictability of the contest.

Trump’s campaign has indicated that Kennedy's exit is beneficial, as noted in a memo by pollster Tony Fabrizio. However, Kennedy’s controversial views might also provide Democrats with more material to label the Republican ticket as "weird." The Harris campaign, while not directly addressing Kennedy, is positioning itself as a new alternative for voters disillusioned by Trump.