Middle East on tenterhooks

Ismail Haniyeh, the assassinated political chief of Hamas, frequently travelled to Tehran from his temporary home in Doha. The top Hamas leader was one of many foreign dignitaries invited to the oath-taking of Iran’s new President. He was seated in the front row during the ceremony. He met the new Iranian President and Iran’s Supreme leader, the last time he was seen in public. After his official engagements, Haniyeh was taken to the guesthouse run and protected by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps in the upscale area of Tehran. Given the importance of the Hamas leader and knowing he was on the hit-list of Israel, the movements of Haniyeh would certainly have been top secret. But despite all those arrangements when the news broke early Wednesday morning that the Hamas chief was assassinated, it shook the entire world. Iran provided little details into the circumstances and the nature of the attack. Initial reports suggested that Israel might have carried out drone strikes; others speculated that it might be air strikes; while some said precision-guided missiles could have done the job.

Israel, the prime suspect, has so far not taken public reasonability, although the Israeli Prime Minister claimed in a televised address that his government dealt a crushing blow to its enemies. The New York Times came up with its own investigations claiming that Haniyeh was assassinated through an explosive device planted some two months ago in the guesthouse where he was staying. Another US media outlet went on to say that the Israeli secret service, Mossad, carried out the high-profile assassination with the use of artificial intelligence. The report also claimed that Israeli operatives were on the Iranian soil and triggered the explosive device through a remote control. If these claims were true, they certainly speak volumes of the intelligence failure of Iran to protect a high-profile guest.

Just days before the assassination of the Hamas leader, there were prospects of a ceasefire. But by the weekend, those hopes were replaced by a potential conflict that may engulf the entire region.

Iran has promised reprisals and informed all international interlocutors, including the UN Secretary General, that Israel’s act won’t go unpunished. In the anticipation of a possible Iranian strike, the US has dispatched additional military resources, including warships, fighter jets and missiles, to the aid of Israel. There are three scenarios.

First, Iran carries out a direct attack on Israel, inflicting major damage. In this situation, the region may be on the verge of a wider conflict with the US and other Israeli allies joining the war.

The second scenario is that Iran carries out calculated and measured attacks without invoking a strong counter response from Israel and its allies. Iran with its current international isolation and economic vulnerabilities cannot afford an all-out war. But Iran has to respond in some form or the other to satisfy its domestic audience and restore its bruised image outside.

The third scenario is that contrary to fears of an all-out war, Haniyeh’s assassination may lead to a ceasefire. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s popularity at home got a boost after the recent events. Therefore, he may want to end the war on a high note, claiming that the war has achieved the objectives.

But in this high stake game with multiple players having divergent interests, there are fears of potential miscalculations. Unfortunately, the events of the past few days overshadowed the genocide in Gaza for a while. It is important to note that the root cause of this conflict lies in the denial of the Palestinians’ right to an independent state. Israel has, during its nine-month long brutality, killed almost 40,000 Palestinians. Among them are 16,000 children. Let that sink in.