Henry Ford (1863–1947) was an American industrialist and is best known for being the founder of the Ford Motor Company. Once asked what he thinks about history and politics, he very inelegantly said: “History is one damn thing after the other and politics is one damn thinker or one damn idea after another.” Why I am reminded of his reply is the frustration I feel in the inability of politics, both domestic and global, in becoming an answer to improve the overall human conditions. In a world in which everyone is under the scrutiny of everyone, the democratic world today commits almost similar mistakes and crimes that it accuses the undemocratic world of committing. Israel strikes Tehran and kills Ismail Haniyeh. In the eyes of the world this act of war violates no international law and no UN Charter which is an instrument of law that all UN member states must follow. Is Israel not a UN member state? Or does it have a free ticket to defend its insecurity by attacking people and assassinating them in sovereign land that too during the inauguration ceremonies of a new president in an independent and sovereign state?
Israel can bank on the realistic logic and claim that a country may act in its own strategic interest. But what about the strategic interest of the US? By continuing to support Israel, the US ends up doing things that are not in its national interest and this contradicts realism. The US continues to damage its reputation in the Middle East and the greater Muslim world. There is no way Israel will get out of the troubles it has created for itself and it faces not two but three fronts — the war in Gaza, the war against Hezbollah in Lebanon and the war against Iran. The current chaos being created by Israel can return the world to the medieval conditions. So, what is the shape of things to come? To know it, we need to first find answers to a few questions. How will the war in Ukraine end? Which wars can President Donald Trump shut down if he returns to power after American elections in November? Will the world witness more surprises in the four months from August to November as the current US administration tries to influence American voters to win elections?
The first question is about the war in Ukraine. President Vladimir Putin’s proposal for start of negotiations to end the war in Ukraine has been dismissed by the US and its Nato allies. So, if the idea is to strengthen the Ukrainian forces on ground and restore the balance of power on the battlefield, will it work? According to Professor John Miershimer, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy is doing a poor job in promoting the best interests of his people. The professor thinks that Ukraine should accept the Russian conditions of commencement of negotiations. Russian Putin demands a complete withdrawal of Ukrainian troops from the territories of Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson. Moscow has also committed to ensuring the “unhindered and safe withdrawal” of Ukrainian forces if Kyiv agrees to such a concession. Kyiv has a problem. President Zelenskyy is not incompetent, it is the conflicting pressures that the US and Nato bring to bear on him and also the impossibility of the task that he is being asked to perform that is taking its toll on him. Just few days back Ukraine received the first batch of six F-16 fighter jets. Denmark has committed to donating 19 jets in total, while the Netherlands has promised to deliver 24 aircraft. Belgium, Denmark, the Netherlands and Norway are committed to providing Ukraine with more than 60 F-16s over the coming months. Group of Seven nations have also agreed in principle to issue $50 billion in loans for Kyiv that are backed by the profits generated by $322 billion of Russian central bank assets frozen by the West. Will all this financial and military aid help Ukraine defeat Russia? The answer is simple no. From Hannibal against the Romans to Napoleon and Hitler, in military warfare there has always been one historic lesson — fighting far from home with insecure supply lines is the road to ruin. If Ukraine uses the UK-supplied Storm Shadow air-launch cruise missiles which have a range of 250 km and which the F-16s can carry and strike targets deep in Russian territory then Russia may step up and use the long-range missiles to try and destroy these F-16s on ground. The potential of the war in Ukraine is only to get further messy; the only solution to bring it to an end is through diplomacy and negotiations. That brings us to the second question. Which wars can Trump shut down if he returns to power?
In August 2019, President Trump declared himself “history’s most pro-Israel U.S. president”. In fact, he asked the Americans not to vote for Democrats because if they did then they would be “very, very disloyal to Israel and to the Jewish people”. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is also on record in terming Trump as “the best friend Israel has ever had in white House”. These statements suggest that Trump will have little incentive and motivation to end the war in Gaza but considering that Trump’s first term was the first since that of Jimmy Carter (1977 to 1981) in which the US did not enter a new war or expand an existing conflict, Trump would like to keep it that way and be known in history as the most accomplished anti-war US president. If this is likely to happen then it becomes easier to answer the third question. Will the world witness more surprises in the four months from August to November as the current US administration tries to influence American voters to win elections?
So far the US has nothing to show to the American public on the question of ceasefire in Gaza. There is a story in how Israel is trying to eliminate Hamas in Gaza. Can this story be repeated in how and what Israel does with Hezbollah in Lebanon? And if Israel has the political, diplomatic and military backing of the US to do this, will it have a positive bearing on the fortune of Democrats in winning over the American public during the November elections? About 60,000 Israeli citizens have been displaced to central Israel due to the constant shelling of northern Israel by Hezbollah. There is hardly any other way that the Israelis know but a military way to fix this problem. With the eyes of the world shut on Israeli immoral ways of fighting wars as well as its inhumanity and cruelty, there is little doubt that it will not try to settle the Hezbollah problem in the small widow from August to November 2024. How right was Heny Ford — one damn thing after another, one damn thinker and idea after another. The world is a cruel place to live.
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