Don’t expect the US to bolster democracy in Pakistan

America will work with whoever is in power to maximize its own strategic interests

Besides the ironic desire of Imran Khan and his supporters to woo American sympathy, after claims that it was American meddling which helped overthrow him, these desperate efforts also lack the potential of bearing significant fruit.

Khan does enjoy significant support amongst the Pakistani diaspora in the US, who in turn have been lobbying American policymakers to support democracy in their country of origin. Khan, himself, has also urged the Washington DC based international lender, the IMF, to audit the country’s election results before releasing another tranche of desperately needed loans.

However, the still incarcerated former Prime Minister seems to lack personal leverage with both the Americans, and the IMF. Diasporic attempts on Khan’s behalf have had some evident impact. Over thirty Democratic legislators have sent a letter to President Joe Biden expressing concerns over election irregularities in Pakistan, and even asked him to refrain from recognising the new government until rigging allegations have been investigated. Senator Van Hollen has also sent a letter to the Pakistani Ambassador to the US along similar lines.

The US State Department’s response to recurrent reports of political engineering and repression in Pakistan following the ouster of Imran Khan government has remained muted, perhaps to avert reinforcing impressions of undue American interference within Pakistani politics. The State Department has, however, expressed some recent concern, following the elections this past month, echoing the need to investigate claims of election irregularities. Yet, the US government has officially congratulated the incoming Prime Minister too and seems quite willing to work with him.

Ultimately, the US establishment does not care who is in power in Pakistan, provided there is some semblance of stability. The US realises that Pakistan has a useful role to play in preventing the resurgence of global terrorist outfits in the region. While the US has developed a robust relationship with India, it does not want this strategic alliance to fuel Pakistani insecurities and make it more beholden to China. While the US seems to lack the appetite for investing more substantially in Pakistan, it is wary of seeing a populous and nuclearised Muslim country become a failed state either.

So, despite expressing concerns about the assault on democratic values, the US will continue to interact with the Pakistani state to enable maximisation of America’s own strategic interests, as it did during the Ayub, Zia and Musharraf eras.

The mismatch between purported American ideals and its realpolitik imperatives is not only in display for Pakistan. The American stance towards Bangladesh is similar too. Bangladesh has also seen a major erosion of democratic values despite its economic growth. After repeatedly admonishing the Sheikh Hasina government for political repression, which enabled her to secure yet another term in office earlier this year, the US has sent a high-profile mission to the country to strengthen diplomatic ties. Washington’s desire to work with Hasina, who has effectively turned Bangladesh into a ‘one-party’ system, is also motivated by the desire to contain growing Chinese influence. The US has thus set aside concerns of championing democratic values and is focusing instead on deepening trade and defence ties, providing support to contend with climate change, and addressing other humanitarian issues, especially the Rohingya crisis.

The US government’s blinders towards Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s attempts to continue suppressing Kashmiris, or to use his ultranationalist Hindu ideology to win another term in office, are also blatant. For the US, India is an important market, and a useful partner to counterbalance Chinese influence in South Asia. The fact that India is becoming an ethno-majoritarian state is inconvenient, but it is certainly not a deal breaker.

Given the evident American willingness to let geostrategic imperatives override concern for aspirational goals such as enabling democracy in South Asia, and elsewhere in the world, Pakistanis at home and abroad should not hold their breath for America to help them dislodge praetorianism.

Published in The Express Tribune, March 8^th, 2024.

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