Deepening faith in democracy

The way the people of Pakistan frustrated all traditional tactics of election manipulation and defied all hurdles to throng polling stations and vote for an undesirable party has strengthened my faith in democracy. 
Attempts were once again made to rob the mandate of the people; but unlike in the past, this time around the voters appeared more aware, more determined and more assertive because the scapegoated party refused to submit to the whims of the powerful actors. The voters did manage to frustrate every attempt during the polling and vote count stages, but could not prevent the last-moment abuse of technology to change the results in favour of the favourites. But the way rigging was done did expose the fraudulent tactics — pretty clumsily. Since those who were promised a lion’s share in the assemblies fared too poorly, the gap between the votes secured by them and the unwanted candidates was too large to fill, and thus the rigging was too evident to hide. 
What is appreciable is that people have spoken despite the vicious attempts to silence their voices. Even in an atmosphere of fear and intimidation, and with the caretakers leaving no stone unturned to rig the electoral process at every step, people remained peacefully defiant and exercised the power of vote to knock out the unwanted party and its leadership from the race. 
Someone summed up the 2024 election eloquently in few words: “It was a peaceful guerilla warfare” which caused huge damage to the integrity of the ECP.
Pattan-Coalition38 with whom I am associated discovered an unprecedented electoral theft within two days of the polling. 
Some opinion polls and indoctrinated political analysts had played a crucial role in building a false sense of popularity for the PML-N. This was a perfect example of the ‘boiling frog syndrome’. By the time the losers realised the danger, it was too late for them to escape a devastating defeat. We all know that even the best plan can’t be implemented efficiently in haste, let alone from an administration that has always failed to manage even well-anticipated floods. It is worth reminding that the ECP is being run by DMG officers.
How naïve were they to believe that merely tampering Forms 47 without changing the numbers on Forms 45 would be enough. In my opinion article published in this newspaper on 10 May 2023, I had argued that when popularity gap between a favourite politician and an unwanted leader crosses a certain level, it becomes unmanageable to bridge the gap through rigging alone. 
Since the undemocratic forces have always found willing collaborators, they have never hesitated to reverse the electoral outcome if and when needed. Very often, the unwanted party and its leaders have accepted the ‘marginalisation’ as fait accompli. But this is the second time in the country’s history that an unwanted party not only refused to accept the mandate theft but also decided to resist. The first time was in 1970. What happened as a result is a dark chapter of our political history. 
Let’s get back to the story of the 2024 general election. In the build-up to the polling day, it was pretty visible that level-playing field was not available to PTI. And post-polling, there have been calls for the audit of Forms 45 and Forms 47, and resignation of the Chief Election Commissioner. Even the Secretary General and the head of the Human Rights Commission of the UNO, international media and world renowned human rights organisations have been demanding an independent probe into the rigging allegations.
No doubt every past election was rigged, but the latest one was rigged to the core. The tactics employed included: confusing the voters by denying ‘cricket bat’ symbol to the PTI; preventing PTI candidates from campaigning; disallowing extra time for polling simply because it could have harmed the favourites; suspending internet, cellular services and EMS; splitting family votes across polling stations and constituencies; changing polling stations without the voters’ consent; retaining the names of a large number of dead voters on electoral rolls; spoiling ballot papers intentionally; disallowing a recount — a legal requirement — in cases; stopping election agents and observers from watching preparation of Forms 47, and delaying announcement of results for days; etc. All these tactics were used to keep the turnout low, as a high turnout was believed to have helped PTI. According to our estimate, roughly 15% of the voters could not exercise their right to franchise due to the above reasons — a blatant violation of the Elections Act 2017 and ECP’s Strategic Plan 2019-23.
It is too early to say how the mandate theft will unfold in the coming days, as the PTI and some smaller parties have refused to accept the results and been protesting since 9th February. Moreover, hundreds of petitions of election fraud have flooded the ECP offices in all four provinces. As the situation is likely to become more intense in the coming days, the role of civil society, think-tanks and intelligentsia will become more and more important. Onus is on them to decide whether they want to act as mere observers and spectators or would side with the Constitution, rule of law and democratic norms.
There is also the need for independent observers to examine the level and means of rigging through scientific research methodology. In this regard, Pattan-Coalition38 has played its role. It conducted three opinion polls, including an exit poll, between 1st week of January and 8th February. Despite knowing very well that there was no level-playing field during the elections, on average more than 80% respondents said they would cast vote. When asked which party was not provided level-playing field, 67% and 58% of those who had said they would vote for PPP and PML-N respectively named PTI. No wonder, the Economist Group Democracy Index 2023 came to the conclusion: “Pakistan is the only Asian country that has been downgraded from a ‘hybrid regime’ to an ‘authoritarian regime’.” We ought to reverse it. 

Published in The Express Tribune, March 1^st, 2024
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