Middle East: retaliation and counter-retaliation

The world is worried about how the war in the Middle East may escalate and engulf the entire region. All indicators on ground suggest that the war may spread over and create greater problems for the entire world. Israel tested Iran's patience for far too long and two months earlier when on 31 July 2024, Ismail Haniyeh, the political leader of Hamas, was assassinated in Tehran in an Israeli attack, many thought that the time for Iranian retaliation has finally arrived.

However, Iran didn't retaliate as the United States engaged Iran in secret diplomacy with a view to finding a way to end the war by agreeing on the terms of a mutually agreed ceasefire. For Iran, the incentive that the US was offering was lucrative and far more rewarding and profitable than taking the revenge. But when on 27 Sept, Hassan Nasrullah was killed in an Israeli air strike Iran was deeply surprised by what it considered the double game played by the Americans. Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu was in the US at the time of the strike and US Secretary of defense Llyod Austin apparently had no prior information about the Israeli strike. Iran was not ready to believe this and took the entire process of talks on ceasefire agreement as a bluff and a ploy. What followed on 1st October in the form of 180-odd ballistic missiles fired by Iran at the Israeli military facilities was not only an Iranian retaliation to the assassination of Ismail Haniyeh and Hassan Nasrullah but also a clear demonstration that it had come to an end of its strategic patience. Israel has so far not retaliated. If it does, what is it likely to do and what would be its likely targets in Iran?

Iranian nuclear facilities, oil fields and oil refineries and some of the Iranian bases will be the primary targets. Israel must have planned this for long and it cannot be the planning and the preparation part that has so far stopped Israel from retaliating. What has stopped Israel's retaliation so far is the American nod. What the Americans fear is that if such an attack takes place, Iran's counter-retaliation will be far too consequential for the entire world. Iran may respond by attacking the oil fields and oil refineries in the entire Middle East. It may also mine the Strait of Hormuz and interfere with the movement and flow of oil tankers traffic from and to the Middle Eastern countries. This would prove catastrophic for the world industry and economy. So, more than fending off the incoming missiles from Iran the more important role that the US finds itself performing now is to make sure that it fends off and prevents an Israeli retaliatory attack on Iran. It is not only the American money, the American intelligence, the American aircraft and the American bombs that Israel uses but also the America-provided air defence and diplomatic shield. Also, if Israel attacks Iran, and Iran's nuclear facilities survive this attack then Iranian motivation to acquire nuclear weapons will skyrocket and the incentive to do so will speed up the entire process. This is not a future scenario that is to the liking of the Americans or even Saudis or other Middle Eastern powers. So, the big likelihood is that Netenyahu may not be able to achieve his lifelong dream of attacking Iran and wiping out its nuclear assets.

The Israeli ground invasion into southern Lebanon also has its clear design. Its aim cannot be to defeat Hezbollah as it is not an achievable military aim. At best Israel can plan to degrade the military capability of Hezbollah and also push them as far north as possible so as to limit Hezbollah's ability to fire rockets and missiles into northern Israel. To achieve this limited military aim, Israel needs troops on ground in both the southern and central Lebanon. That is an option that favours Hezbollah's guerilla fighters who prefer fighting the hit and a run battle in this asymmetric warfare. World has seen enough of Israeli armed forces brutality in Gaza, southern Lebanon and now Beirut. Iran was careful to choose military targets only when it fired a barrage of missiles but Israel has demonstrated no such caution throughout the length of the war. The strategic effect that such ruthless bombing of the civilian population creates is recorded in history in the shape of Vietnam, Afghanistan and Iraq. Given the history of such warfare, the fate of Israeli army is not likely to be much different.

For a long time, Iran had been made to look weak by Israel. Israel carried out a number of assassinations and also targeted Iranian interests. It was generally believed that Iran will react, interfere and prevent the degradation of its resources in the hub of its proxy theatre of war but it did not. Iran's current military action is based on a strategic logic. The logic of another great power supporting it.

The S-400s SAMs that await Israeli air strike are Russia-supplied. There are reports that Russia and China are also close on signing a defence pact. Russia also warned Israel not to invade Lebanon and its ambassador in Israel has asked the Russian citizens to leave Israel. There are also reports that recently President Vladimir Putin refused to take a call from the Israeli PM. More importantly, it is also being reported that the air defence system of Russian naval ships in the Mediterranean intercepted some of the missiles that Israel fired on Lebanon. One cannot be sure about the veracity of some of these reports but what one can be sure of is that Russia is clearly re-asserting its influence in the Middle East. If Israel is America's vassal state then Iran will also have little problem in acting as a vassal state of another great power as long as its interests are served.