The present predicament and takeaways

The present portrays a unique binary in our national socio-political evolution, rare in more than one way: on the one hand are witnessed extreme measures against a group raising valid concerns for human rights, fair choice and the rule of law; on the other, the situation portrays an apparent, unrivaled threat to democracy by attempted subversion of the prime security agency of the state, culminating in the May 9^th debacle that the establishment is confirmed was a failed attempted mutiny — a serious charge even in developed democracies; unaffordable in a fledgling democracy with a long contest between military and civilian supremacy, not to mention the fraught regional risks.

The establishment being struck hard, befuddled at its own handiwork, reacted in the expected manner, quickly setting its own house in order by summary removal (severer actions were avoided not to upset the whole applecart) of three generals, twelve Brigadiers and others, falsifying ‘false-flag operation’ charges. Military trials of ‘outsider’ elements were started. The incident is grave enough needing an impartial enquiry. It begs the question though whether a neophyte democracy, or any plural society, can permit the freedom to subvert it from within by invoking democratic norms.

One side of the mirror reflects a democratic stakeholder grown in the bowels of the establishment for mutually reinforcing goals, professing liberalism with seeming Napoleonic traits. With its majority challenged by a parliamentary VONC, a preplanned resort was made, unconstitutionally, advising the President to dissolve parliament and announce fresh elections to which he, being the party nominee, assented without demure. The decision was struck down by the Bandial Supreme Court.

A prolonged period of protests and political instability ensued spread over one and a half years with dire consequences for the economy, particularly due to the stalled IMF agreement breached in January 2021. All economic and financial indicators plummeted, with the economy teetering on default.

Imprudent handling of the Cypher to rile up popular passions against a regime change conspiracy, contested all around, led to avoidable damage to not only the credibility of diplomatic and secrecy system but jeopardised relations with a superpower and chances of financial help, that very power being later pandered to by engaging lobbyists .

Seventy-five rallies were held during the period making life and commerce chaotic, demanding, variously, fresh elections and contesting the right of the government to appoint an army chief of its choice. The judiciary was brought into the fray with its controversial interpretation of Article 63- A of the Constitution dubbed as “rewriting the Constitution”.

In real politique when the primary security arm of the state is taken on, whose credibility lies on an image of invincibility, the stakeholder who wields the greater power will prevail, by whatsoever means at its disposal, since it regards the challenge as an existential threat disabling it from ensuring the security and independence of the state and its own raison d’etre. Contrarily a revolution succeeds. The tendency not to allow the return of another similar threat or revival of a status quo ante will predominate.

“Recognizing what is possible and what is not is the essence of the art of politics.” And by political means a predominant stakeholder can, by slow evolutionary processes of democratisation, finding spaces through tactical successes, by combining political forces, as demonstrated in the COD of 2006, where two of the bitterest political opponents joined hands to keep the establishment within its remit, an entente can be evolved in a win-win paradigm, allowing enlarging the size of the total pie to the mutual advantage of the shareholders. It may seem impossible but it is realisable if concordat is struck between the civilian and establishment as part of a national charter of democracy.

‘Exceptionalism’ and a sense of ‘entitlement’ was noticeable in disregard for the Supreme Court orders debarring the 25 May 2022 march entering Islamabad red zone area, resulting in large-scale law and order and arson; there was the storming of Judicial Complex, a rally to stop an army chief from being appointed, public threatening of Judge Zeba and IGs, ECP and Members of a JIT. Frequent trolling of judges of superior courts was common where judgements didn’t please.

An attitude of disdain for democratic norms and institutions was attributed to a self-assumed status of untouchability, created by an ultra-nationalist, xenophobic populist propaganda, with religious overtones, which gave the party leadership an attitude of nonchalant antipathy to institutional democracy, not sitting with the opposition, allowing the establishment to literally run the parliament and handle relations with opposition, spurning the 2018 opposition offer made to enter into a charter of economy, averring that it would rather sit with terrorists rather than the opposition. The latest offer of talks resonates similarly.

A fierce anti-corruption crusade was launched using/misusing NAB to put the whole leadership of the opposing political parties in jail for long periods. Media was coerced. There was no end in sight to the misuse of social media, carrying on the anti-corruption diatribe following the establishment project starting 2014-15 to oust two main political parties from politics.

This apparent irreverence for institutional democracy can be traced back to the mollycoddling and extreme indulgence for the outfit until as late as mid-2021 when lack of performance on the political, economic and diplomatic planes started yielding diminishing returns, ringing alarm bells in establishment halls. At this juncture the military realised that the faltering economy and waning foreign relations with prominent allies was attenuating its own institutional capabilities/capacities coinciding with Gen Bajwa propounding “geo-economics” as a replacement for “geo-strategic” domestic and foreign policies.

Practical politics is the art of the achievable. In a contest between democratic forces and the rest, a weaker partner, by calculated moves and gains, will be able to force a more powerful adversary to strategic compromises. Cool-headed, plural, inclusive, consensus-based politics rather than a headlong crash, putting supporters at great risk, is the only way that civilian ascendancy can be achieved in our highly-skewed and asymmetrical power game. But all parties must uphold democracy, shunning the new, grave threat to plural democracy surging the whole world over: the apocalyptic politics of populism. All or nothing is a theme for dismal outcomes. Compromises and consensus have often proven more rewarding.

Published in The Express Tribune, February 11^th, 2024.

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