PDM 2.0?

The post-ballot trajectory is one of chaos and confusion, marred by serious allegations of irregularities. The fact that the Election Commission has not been able to come up with formal official results even after the lapse of 30 hours is an enigma, and is in contravention of the Elections Act 2017. The so-called Election Management System (EMS) caved in, as was the case with RTS in 2018 elections, and has simply cemented the impression that there is something fishy in the entire apparatus of electioneering. Likewise, the somersaults that the PTI-backed Independent candidates had to face, almost across the board, by either losing their initial leads over their opponents, or later being routed out, has come to discredit the ballot. The European Union and the US State Department have taken note of allegations of irregularities and called upon the authorities to probe them thoroughly. The PML-N and PPP, cruising as second and third contenders respectively, are in for a hung parliament, which will act as a detrimental element as the nation aspires for socio-political stability.

The emergence of PTI-backed Independents as the largest chunk, despite post-poll engineering, has granted them due credence against odds. The late night change of results for many of their winning stalwarts, especially those from the lawyers’ community, will sooner than later hit litigation, and it is feared that roughly 40 to 50 seats will be up for a catch. This is where instability will creep in, and go on to further cripple the mosaic as many of the Independents would be lured into floor-crossing. Likewise, the floodgate of social media leaks establishing what went wrong late in the midnight and in the wee hours of Friday has put the electoral watchdog in the dock. Witnesses of ballot stuffing, forceful eviction of polling agents, highhandedness of law-enforcement personnel and the deception of many of the returning officers, as well as the suspension of cellular services, is in need of being probed. So is the case with abject incidents of lawlessness inside polling stations in Karachi, and the MQM and PPP must face retribution for it.

With a 90-odd Independents, it seems certain that a coalition government will be formed by cobbling PML-N, MQM and PPP members. It will be a repeat of PDM in essence, and remains to be seen what new chemistry they can usher in to stay afloat. Similarly, the neck-to-neck race in Punjab Assembly between Independents and PML-N is too close to call, and it is unlikely that any of them will be comfortable with a simple majority. So will be another weak coalition in Balochistan, and a divisive governance mosaic in Sindh once again between the PPP and MQM as they get along for a marriage of ‘inconvenience’. The province of Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa is the sole exception that is stable and consolidated with a PTI sweep.

The February 8 vote, and its aftermath, has unleashed a debate as to why the PTI is unacceptable to influential quarters. This impression will be counter-productive in the long run, and should open vistas of a grand reconciliation sooner than later. Parliamentary democracy is all about respecting the verdict of the masses and accepting the popularity of political parties. Orchestrating anything contrary to the will of the people is simply unacceptable, and shall not stand the litmus test of legality. At the same time, the ECP has some serious irritants to address and must come clean over its lapses. It has erred in upholding the confidence of the nation, and owes an explanation.

Published in The Express Tribune, February 10^th, 2024.

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