POW exchange: just the beginning of the long way to peace

After five months of deadlock, exchange process, frozen by Moscow, was finally unblocked

On January 3, the exchange of prisoners between Ukraine and Russia took place. As many as 230 Ukrainians were brought back from Russian captivity. This was the largest exchange of prisoners of war since the Russian full-scale invasion of Ukraine started in February 2022.

This exchange was really difficult. After five months of deadlock, the exchange process, frozen by Moscow, was finally unblocked due to the efforts of Ukraine, the pressure of the international community and the mediation of the UAE.

The exchanged persons included 48 individuals who were considered missing, six illegally imprisoned civilians, five women, seven defenders of Snake Island, as well as Mariupol defenders and National Guard soldiers captured at the Chornobyl nuclear power plant in the beginning of the full-scale invasion.

Since the beginning of the Russian war against Ukraine, a total of 2,828 Ukrainians have been brought back from Russian captivity. But at least 28,000 citizens of Ukraine still can be considered missing under special circumstances i.e. being civilian hostages and being in Russian captivity. In addition to this, the Russian occupiers could have deported nearly 200 to 300 thousand children from Ukraine to Russia.

The efforts on the release of prisoners continue 24/7. Ukraine strives to return all prisoners and deported persons from Russian captivity, including deported children, and call for an all-for-all prisoner exchange. Ukraine’s human right Ombudsman Dmytro Lubinets has expressed hope the exchanges could continue in the coming weeks.

But do these exchanges really forebode end of Russia’s war against Ukraine any time soon?

Well such an expectation would be quite premature. As the war nears its third year, the awareness is growing both in Ukraine and in the world capitals that this is going to be a protracted war. After all, Russia is not taking any sincere steps towards peace, counting on the attrition of Ukraine and the fatigue of its allies. If even Moscow is signaling a truce, it is only to weaken international support for Ukraine and to gather enough strength for a new offensive. As long as Putin and his clique do not show a slightest inclination to negotiate anything but Ukraine’s surrender, every “negotiate now” call only makes him dig his heels deeper in the Ukrainian soil.

Ukrainians know better than anyone else that Putin will not follow any peace agreement. Since 2014, 200 rounds of negotiations with Russia have been held, 20 ceasefires have been announced and two peace agreements have been concluded in efforts to find a solution for the territories of Ukraine occupied by Russia. However, everything was dashed by the full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine.

True peace with Russia could be achieved when this war of aggression starts hurting Russia much more than it does now – because of the sanctions, financial losses and defeats on the battlefield. Only then it would be possible to force Moscow to stop its aggression and return respect to the Goals and Principles of the UN Charter. Nevertheless, until that moment will come, Ukraine keeps the door for diplomatic solution open.

The ten-point Peace Formula of the President of Ukraine is gradually gaining world support and remains the only realistic and viable plan to restore Ukraine’s territorial integrity and to lay foundation for comprehensive, just and lasting peace for Ukraine as well as for the entire international community.

The fourth meeting of national security and foreign policy advisers on the implementation of the Peace Formula would be held in Davos on 14th January. After that, it would be possible to convene the first inaugural Global Peace Summit. Countries from all parts of the world, including Pakistan, could be involved in the Summit which could become the founding stone of the future world’s security architecture.

 

Published in The Express Tribune, January 15^th, 2024.

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