US-China dynamics in Taiwan’s elections

Elections may also trigger conflict with China or steer Taiwan toward becoming part of its neighbour

But if the Chinese mainland, the PRC, attacked Taiwan, we’d be obligated to come to their aid. — Fred Thompson

The upcoming presidential election in Taiwan is a critical event in the island’s history with significant implications for Taiwan, China and the US. The outcome of the elections could significantly impact Taiwan’s sovereignty, leading to its stability or vulnerability. It may also trigger a conflict with China or steer Taiwan toward becoming a part of its neighbour. On January 13, 2024, Taiwan will hold its eighth direct presidential election. The three parties contesting elections are the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), the opposition party Kuomintang (KMT), and Taiwan’s People’s Party (TPP), a newcomer to politics. The DPP originated from a pro-democracy movement led by the KMT that aimed to end Taiwan’s one-party dictatorship. The DPP has selected Hsiao Bi-khim, Taiwan’s former envoy in the US, as William Lai’s running mate. On the other hand, the KMT selected Jaw Shaw-Kong, a well-known pro-China media figure, as Hou Yu-ih’s running mate. The US will be keeping a close eye on Taiwan’s elections as it will once again highlight Beijing’s policies towards the self-ruled island it claims as its own.

This article aims to evaluate how these elections can influence the behaviour of the US and China.

Taiwan holds a crucial strategic position between China and significant US allies. If China gains physical control over Taiwan, it will create a geographical barrier between the US allies and provide access to the open ocean. This would also prevent counterforces from using Taiwan as a military staging ground in the region. China has always considered Taiwan as its own island and hopes to reunify its historical territory. The seizure of Hong Kong has highlighted Beijing’s commitment to reunification. Hence, China does not view the elections positively. The head of China’s Taiwan Affairs Office referred to the Taiwan election as a “choice between war and peace”. At the same time, the country’s top military official issued a warning, saying that China will not show mercy to anyone who supports Taiwan’s independence. Jennifer Staats highlights that China has attempted to interfere in the election by spreading misinformation that erodes the public trust in the Taiwanese government and creates doubt about the legitimacy of the US support for Taiwan. Additionally, China is pushing the narrative that both the US and Taiwan are engaging in destabilising behaviour.

Protecting the US from Chinese practices has been the top priority regarding security, economy and governance. Robert Stutters notes that China’s undermining the US power in Asia and striving to establish its dominance in high-tech industries threaten the national security of the US. Taiwan’s high-tech sector, which is critical in US economic competition with Beijing, its political democracy, free market economy and adherence to international norms support American leaders in addressing China’s challenges. Thus, Taiwan could strengthen the US position in the Asia-Pacific by acting as a proxy and containing China’s rapid economic growth.

According to Stutter, there will be continuity in the US policy towards Taiwan and China irrespective of who wins the election due to the strong will in the US to confront the serious challenges China poses. Thus, Taiwan is critical in addressing these challenges and opposing China’s aspirations. Taiwan also holds strategic importance to the joint defence of the US and its democratic allies. It plays a crucial role in the Indo-Pacific region that is highly valued by US policymakers seeking to counter China’s aggressive moves. Stutter asserts that the US government has been strengthening its military and diplomatic support for Taiwan as a result of Beijing’s intense economic, diplomatic and military pressure on the island nation.

Moreover, at this pivotal time, the election will define Taiwan’s foreign policy, especially concerning its relationship with China. Rosie Levine claims that a DPP victory is likely to strengthen Taiwan’s ties with the US and other democracies but may still increase tensions with China, given China’s reluctance to cooperate with the DPP. On the other hand, if KMT wins, it could complicate the US-Taiwan relationship if Taiwan attempts to build closer ties with China amid the ongoing US-China tensions. Similarly, different challenges and opportunities may arise based on the election’s outcome, which the US is ready to address, and as Rory Daniels claims, the US would consider strategies to prevent any Chinese military retaliation by sending “appropriate political signals”. The US is legally obligated to provide Taiwan with means for defence, making it Taiwan’s most important international supporter. Therefore, DPP’s victory could increase the distance between Taiwan and Beijing, as the latter has accused Taiwan of advocating for independence and risking conflict.

As mentioned previously, Taiwan is significant to both the US and China. China continues to push for Taiwan’s reunification and is not likely to opt for a peaceful reunification. Taiwan’s strategic location is crucial for China’s power projection in the South China Sea. By controlling Taiwan, China secures its national defence, international trade and a base of operations for expansion. Taiwan’s democratic future faces a potential threat posed by China, especially with the seizure of Hong Kong in view. However, it is also important to note that unlike Hong Kong, Taiwan has the support of the US, which complicates the situation. Therefore, elections could escalate tensions between the US and China, and the newly-elected leadership will encounter challenges.

Published in The Express Tribune, January 10^th, 2024.

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