Russia-Ukraine prisoner exchange

With war dragging into second year, perhaps success of these negotiations will provide some impetus for peace talks

Russia and Ukraine recently restarted exchanging prisoners of war after several months of stalling the practice, in what analysts see as a long-overdue confidence-building measure. However, the exchange — brokered by the UAE — is unlikely to lead to any resolution to the violence, with Russia recently stepping up its aerial offensive on Kyiv and several other cities. The last week alone has seen over 500 missile and drone attacks on Ukraine, according to the country’s President Volodymyr Zelensky. While Russia has been regularly attacking from the air, Tuesday saw a six-hour siege of Kyiv. Although Ukraine claims it shot down all 35 drones launched at the capital, several missiles did make it through, according to independent damage reports. Ukraine has also increased airborne attacks, including the recent assault on Belgogrod, where Ukrainian aircraft and misfiring Russian air defences combined to kill over 25 people.

While reliable data is hard to get from either side, conservative independent estimates say at least 9,700 Ukrainian civilians and over 10,000 security officials have been killed, while the Russian death toll reportedly tops 55,000. US officials say both sides have understated the numbers, estimating that over 120,000 Russian soldiers, 70,000 Ukrainian soldiers and over 12,000 Ukrainian civilians had been killed by around August. The numbers have risen significantly in the ensuing months. Still, the exchange of over 200 soldiers each is a significant development that serves as a reassurance that there are still cool heads on both sides that are willing to negotiate, no matter how complex the issue.

With the war now dragging into its second year, perhaps the success of these negotiations will provide some impetus for good faith peace talks that allow both sides to claim victory while ending the bloodshed. Russia surely cannot sustain the high number of troop losses or cost of weapons amid sanctions, but at the same time, the US and EU’s failure to provide the promised amount of support to Ukraine means that their war machine is also running on fumes.

Published in The Express Tribune, January 5^th, 2024.

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