When in 1948 the world’s first Jewish state came into being on the land of Palestine, its transformation from a nascent state to the world’s powerful one became a reality. As the only nuclear state in the Middle East with modern army and economic and technological power, Israel became an arrogant and an expansionist state having ambitions beyond its borders.
The myth of Israel’s invincibility however crashed on October 7 when a non-state actor attacked Israel from land, sea and air, killing 1,400 people and taking 240 others hostage. Predictably, Israel retaliated with full force vowing to accomplish a two-pronged objective: one, to liquidate Hamas; and two, to make sure that no attack from Gaza into Israel takes place in the future. After killing 20,000 Palestinians in Gaza, its mission remains accomplished. But the question rises: Will Israel survive despite its colossal military arsenal and unabated US backing? If more than 140 out of 193 members of the UN voted for ceasefire in Gaza, does that mean growing international isolation of Israel? Economic costs of war in Gaza tend to cripple the economy and tourist industry of Israel forcing the regime of Benjamin Netanyahu to cut wages and introduce other punitive austerity measures.
The resilience of Israeli people to cope with difficult circumstances is true but faced with more than two months of armed conflict in Gaza and violence in the occupied West Bank, fault lines in Jewish state are deepening with each passing day, questioning its invincibility as a state power. These fault lines threaten the very survival of Israel because of the artificial nature of state and the lack of ownership of people in times of crisis. Hundreds of Israelis having dual nationality are leaving the Jewish state because they are uncertain whether the government will be able to deal with the armed conflict with Hamas and Hezbollah and for how long they will live in a state of siege. The state that was established on the basis of religion survived several wars with Arab neighbours but it has now reached a dangerous point that it cannot endlessly deal with constant threats from Hamas and Hezbollah.
Opponents are pointing finger at the Netanyahu regime that it had early warning of Hamas’s October 7 attack but it overlooked and is responsible for several hundred deaths and abductions. Furthermore, Netanyahu is also blamed for mismanaging crisis on its northern borders where Hezbollah, in connivance with Hamas, launched attacks resulting in the displacement of half a million residents. Same is the situation with Israel’s southern borders whereas attacks by Hamas on October 7 forced residents to flee. When Israel is sandwiched from north and south between Hezbollah and Hamas attacks and is continuing with its brutal air and ground operations against Gaza, panic tends to psychologically demoralise the Jewish state. For how long the US will render billions of dollars of military assistance to Israel is yet to be seen because the Biden administration in view of its relentless support to the Jewish state is a target of criticism at home and abroad.
From any standpoint Israel is facing worst crisis of survival in its history. Earlier, the Israeli military and people used to confront Arab and Palestinian threats with resilience and unity but in 2023 the situation seems different. By killing more than 20,000 Palestinians in Gaza and in the occupied West Bank in retaliation for the October 7 Hamas attacks, Israel is facing not only international isolation but also global condemnation. If Arab states are merely taking a superficial position against Israel, the Western public is furious on the manner in which the Jewish state has launched killing fields in Gaza and West Bank. For Palestinians it is like a do-or-die situation because of the decades of humiliation and aggression caused by the Israeli military, but the people of Israel certainly have limitations and cannot endlessly bear pressure from north and south.
Will the Israeli state reach the level of fragility because of the colossal economic losses since October 7 and the growing international isolation and condemnation? A section of the Israeli public opinion holds Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu responsible for aggravating conflict with Hamas and Hezbollah in order to sustain his hold on power and hide his corrupt practices. The war cabinet which has been in place in Israel after October 7 has neither eliminated Hamas nor got all the prisoners released from the captivity of Hamas. One can analyse the future of Israeli state from three angles.
First, as an artificial state established on the land of Palestine in 1948 by displacing millions of native people, Israel claims it is democracy but has in fact deprived around 20% of its Arab population of their legitimate rights. Cultural and ethnic contradictions in the Jewish state where Jews from different parts of the world were settled can be termed a major fault line. For how long Israel will survive as a state on the basis of religious identity cannot be predicted.
Second, Israeli leadership exploits threat perception emanating from Hamas, Hezbollah, Arab neighbours and Iran to justify its narrative of national security. Faced with multiple security threats, Israel has been transformed as a regimented society and a garrison state where every able-bodied citizen is supposed to undergo compulsory military training. The absence of threat perception in Israel will not provide any justification to augment its military power and nuclear status. Like other insecure states which survive on so-called ideological basis, Israel also exploits its Jewish religion as a binding force to keep the state intact. But that type of threat perception which Israel has been projecting since its inception may not last for long.
Third, deep down in Israeli psyche there is a growing realisation that unleashing a reign of terror against unarmed Palestinians will be counter-productive and will deepen its insecurity.
Israeli Jews who have settled in illegal settlements are aggressive and brutal against local Palestinian population to the extent that the US President and the Secretaries of State and Defense had to remind Israel that it should control settlers who are involved in attacking Palestinians. If millions of Jews had had to suffer at the hands of the Nazi regime, it doesn’t mean that they should kill Palestinians the same way and embark on a plan to wipe them out from Gaza and the West Bank. Israel has shed so much of blood of innocent Palestinians that it will sooner or later pay the price of genocide and forced displacement.
Only by agreeing to an independent Palestinian state with East Jerusalem at its capital can Israel have peace and security.
Published in The Express Tribune, December 26th, 2023.
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