TTP, TTA and new round of proxy wars

Events of the year 2023 left little doubt that the Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) continued its destabilisation campaign in the name of ideological camaraderie with the Afghan Taliban. While peddling its illogical terror agenda, the TTP has cunningly used its oath of allegiance to Mullah Hibbatullah Akhund as a cover for its proxy terror activities in Pakistan.

Afghan Taliban — now the rulers of the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan — on their part refuse to crack down on or limit the Afghan space for the TTP. It states ideological and socio-political constraints to defend its “slow but invisible” action against the TTP. Hafiz Gul Bahadur, the North Waziristani warlord, meanwhile also supports the TTP’s demands for restoration of the semi-autonomous status of the former FATA region. They both want the army out of the area, and refuse to surrender to the writ of the state.

Pakistani officials, therefore, rightly suspect that some top elements of the Islamic Emirate may also be “silent supporters” of the TTP and Hafiz Gul Bahadur demands. The latter used to be a facilitator for the Pakistan army until the launch of the Operation Zarb-e-Azb in June 2014. Hafiz Gul Bahadur, who never merged with the TTP since its creation in December 2007, has now also morphed into a proxy terrorist by aspiring an independent Islamic Republic, if not a caliphate, in the former FATA area.

This demand is common to TTP, ISKP and “commanders” such as Hafiz Gul Bahadur. And this clearly underscores an agenda that amounts to red lines for any sovereign nation i.e. non-negotiable.

This backdrop portends challenging times ahead for Pakistan for three reasons, as follows:

First, the TTA is constrained by its decades-long partnership with the TTP, and thus there is little for Pakistan to expect a concerted Kabul action against the TTP whose leaders continue to enjoy Afghan hospitality.

The second reason stems from Pakistan’s decision to deport over a million illegal Afghans refugees in a year that registered the highest number of security personnel fatalities — over 500 — in eight years. Almost all of this violence originated in Afghanistan, despite a number of measures, including a decree by the Emirates asking Afghans not to support or facilitate any foreign organisation for its terrorist activities in the neighbouring countries. Regardless whether the spike in terrorism can at all be linked to the “overstaying” of illegal Afghan refugees, Pakistani establishment has justifiably been growing concerned about the vicious cycle of proxy terrorist violence. And this has turned the relationship with Kabul sour like never before. This has given the Afghan ministers as well as people at large yet another opportunity to censure Pakistan.

The third reason is cumulatively linked to the first two i.e. increased geopolitical vulnerabilities for Pakistan resulting from the TTP’s continued operation out of Afghanistan and the Kabul-Islamabad acrimony arising out of deportations.

The wave of anger in Kabul coincided with the Indian move to have the keys of the Afghan embassy back to Ms Zakia Wardak, the consul general of Afghanistan in Mumbai, and Sayed Mohammad Ibrahimkhel, the consul general in Hyderabad, in late November.

The Taliban regime in Kabul obviously welcomed the move because with this, New Delhi underscored its desire to engage with Kabul without recognising the government there, thereby moving closer to regional players such as Iran, Pakistan, China and Russia. All have advocated and practised engagement with Kabul.

The Indian move stokes new fears for Afghans in general and kicks up new security concerns for Islamabad and the security establishment in Rawalpindi.

Coincidentally, an Afghan friend with business tentacles spread in Pakistan, the UAE and Eurasia was the first to raise alarm over the return of the Afghan embassy.

“India will bring more fire and deaths to us,” wrote the friend from one of his European offices. He fears that — as part of geopolitics — India will try to upend Pakistan through policies which may be good for it vis a vis Pakistan but negative for Afghans.

Logically India should have stood with the aggrieved Palestinians instead of the Afghans. “Sadly, it openly supported Israel against the helpless Palestinians,” wrote the friend.

Apprehensions of another looming round of a proxy war between India and Pakistan are indeed unsettling for most Afghans who dread the thought of continued instability and potential resumption of hostilities.

But it must be equally worrying for Pakistan, which embarked on a tough stance vis a vis Afghans out of frustration with the TTP-led proxy terrorism but ended up losing whatever little goodwill that existed for it in Afghanistan.

As a regional proponent of the US-led anti-China alliance, India will likely exploit every single opportunity to trump other regional players while dealing with Kabul. This would mean back to the days of republic, when British historian William Dalrymple had spoken of an intense Indo-Pakistani “proxy war” playing out in Afghanistan.

Meanwhile, proxy actors including TTP and ISKP loom large over the Afghan horizon — largely responsible for threats and violent actions not only against Pakistan but also the extended neighbohood.

This situation also demands a concerted action plan by major regional players — Iran, Pakistan, China, Russia and the Central Asia Republics — if they were to defeat the looming proxy war aimed at keeping the region on the boil.

Published in The Express Tribune, December 13^th, 2023.

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