Gaza bombing: a successful denial or coercion failure?

The current Israeli strategy of intense bombing backed by ground action cannot achieve strategic denial because Hamas’s planned surprise has already accomplished its objectives in the region and beyond. Hence the aerial attacks are a form of coercion or punishment on Gazans for Hamas to surrender or at least give something substantial in return to mitigate the effects of its strategic surprise. The IDF must understand that the well thought-out attack conducted by Hamas was in reaction to the Israeli strategy to make Hamas irrelevant by normalising relationships with its neighbouring countries including the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA). This has produced a strategic friction between Hamas and KSA (and other Muslim countries) which finally culminated in the form of a well-coordinated high-tech attack on October 7, 2023. Moreover, the current actions of IDF are bound to generate another strategic surprise which must be under process of ossification in near future. It might be a sort of an innovative action against Israel or its interests perpetrated and coordinated by different extremist groups in the region. It can also come from a region or area least focused upon or concerned with IDF at the moment or it might erupt from the country of one of its strategic partners in the region.

The IDF strategy should be viewed on the parameter of a successful denial or a coercion failure. There are chances and the way the war has progressed so far it may result into a failed coercion. Apart from killing some primary members of Hamas along with tall claims of decimating its Gaza-based headquarters, nothing substantial is documented on ground. A couple of videos have been shared by IDF on discovering underground tunnels as well. However, a true picture of these mazes is still enveloped in fog of war. Meanwhile, Israel is adamant that it wants to obliterate Hamas from Gaza and has intensified its aerial attacks on every nook and corner of the Gaza. According to the statistics compiled by the Care International, a leading international NGO delivering long-term developmental and humanitarian aid projects across the globe, the intensity of bombing indicates that nearly 70% of over 11,000 killed are women and children. The fatalities among children in Gaza have surpassed the number of women and children killed or injured in Ukraine war so far.

There is no match between Hamas and IDF when it comes to aerial power. The Israelis have been conducting aerial bombardment to reduce any resistance from Hamas during ground assault. The UN Office for Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs estimates that nearly 15,000 housing units have been destroyed while about 10,000 were rendered inhabitable during the aerial assault so far. Moreover, 139,000 residential units experienced minor damages pointing to the destruction of entire neighbourhoods. As the IDF moved forward to seize the Gaza city and its environs, mass exodus of population has been observed in last few weeks. The IDF has no hesitation in bombing shelter centres for the displaced Gazans as they think they have the human intelligence on the presence of Hamas elements hiding among the population. Such pattern of aerial strikes suggests that Israel wants to instil fear in the hearts and minds of Gaza inhabitants to disassociate themselves from the Hamas. This link is crucial as population has always been conveniently used as a safe refuge to hide. The Gaza is an isolated geographical piece bounded by sea and land. Hence, the strategy of intense bombing can produce the requisite results for IDF in terms of temporary capitulation of Hamas or at least a retreat for the time being. This might not be the principal objective of IDF as the political leadership back home cannot synchronise it earnestly with its will at the moment.

With Iran unlikely to change its posture, the current bombing and its graphics on social media platforms will reinvigorate historical animosities leading to another strategic surprise for the state of Israel.

 

Published in The Express Tribune, December 27^th, 2023.

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