Impact of internal instability is comprehensive

The India-Pakistan relationship is the most complex and deep-rooted. It has a historical context preceding the partition and bears the wounds of mass killing and mayhem that occurred soon after the independence, with Muslims bearing the brunt in India and Hindus in Pakistan. The two major wars, 1965 and 1971, and several serious conflicts and skirmishes, including the Kargil episode, further strained relations. And more recently, BJP government’s unilateral steps to bifurcate and integrate Kashmir as a part of the Union in gross disregard of UNSC resolutions has antagonised Kashmiris and cut a deeper wedge in India- Pakistan relations. Moreover, with national elections in India in the near future and Pakistan having an interim PM and cabinet, until its own national elections take place, the status quo is likely to continue. It is to be seen as a part of election campaign to what extent and in what light relations between the two countries would be discussed and given priority. Going by the past record, surprisingly, these have generally been dealt with in a peripheral manner and are not considered an important factor on both sides of the border. Although India and especially PM Modi has poured far more venom on Pakistan especially while canvassing in states close to the border.

Indian hostility finds an expression practically in every major regional and global gathering, like SCO, or at BRICS, as was evident in its last meeting. Apart from other factors China anticipating that India would certainly block Pakistan’s entry in BRICS plus, while proposing the expansion of the organisation at its last meeting in Johannesburg deliberately did not include its name in the list of countries. Last year too, India blocked Pakistan’s participation at the BRICS event which was held in China and proposed by it. India’s hostility smacks of hypocrisy and double standards.

Apparently, Pakistan government too was not keen to join the organisation. With its economy in serious decline, and political turmoil and unsatisfactory security situation on the Western border, it could hardly contribute in any significant way. Moreover, the SCO since the induction of all the Central Asian states as its members has become too wieldy. Probably, Pakistani leadership sees hardly any benefit in becoming its member or make significant contribution at this stage as its member.

It is to be seen how the India-China rivalry would impact Pakistan. In all probability it will further push Pakistan closer to China. Economic considerations too would put pressure to lean on China. But it is not as simple as that, as there are limits to how much any country can help another in meeting its financial needs. Moreover, it is Pakistan’s domestic political unrest and worsening security that is a source of concern for China.

So, it is time for our leadership to realise that the extremely weak economic situation and heavy dependence on foreign aid coupled with internal turmoil and state of uncertainty about the outcome of the elections have seriously impacted on its international and regional standing that has long-term consequences for the country and its people. This situation is not going to change unless there is a fundamental reorientation in the relations between political parties and definite move toward strengthening democracy. It is not that we do not know how to go about it but vested or narrow institutional interests continue to trump larger good and strict adherence to the constitution.

Among several measures that the next government has to take to improve its economy and to draw benefits from foreign collaboration is to ensure that CPEC remains on course. So that the country benefits from the investment that the country is making and the invaluable support it is receiving from China is beneficially utilised for the good of the people especially of Balochistan. There is still work to be done in certain areas that suffered badly due to political uncertainty, adverse security situation and lack of funds.

The incoming government will have to address multiple problems of a serious nature which are a legacy of the past due to the changes in the regional and global situation and gross mismanagement of successive governments. So, it is critical that the priorities are right and focused on the lower income groups. There has been a genuine grievance that past national budgets generally favour the rich and fail to address even the basic needs of the poor. During the pre-election period there has to be a serious debate on major national issues in the electronic and print media. The time for personalised politics is over. People are interested that their economic problems are seriously addressed and solutions found. The general drift toward lawlessness is another serious issue that is hurting them badly and requires government full attention. The more fundamental issue of civil-military relations and adherence to constitutional norms cannot continue indefinitely. The list is long and we all know them but for our leaders their priorities are different. So, it is important who we vote for, which party is better placed to govern and which individual in the constituency deserves our support. There were indications that a significant number of voters may stay away from elections due a general feeling of despondency, believing that nothing changes in Pakistan. This tendency must be discouraged, in fact, nothing better would serve the interests of the country if the voters turn out in large numbers. The pre-election canvassing should be robust so that the party’s manifesto is discussed and prospective candidate credentials and potential to serve the national and people’s interest are gauged. In addition, how to improve relations with Afghanistan and India should be discussed.

The interim government bears a huge responsibility of ensuring the fairness and fidelity of elections. In the past Pakistan’s democracy has suffered due to institutional interference or by creating conditions prior to and during elections that favour one or the other party. This undermines the entire process and has harmed the country in a big way. Let the coming elections be different that all parties and individuals who are in the field are treated equally. The PTI which has a significant vote bank across the country should be allowed equal freedom to participate in elections.

Pakistan and its people will be the gainers by doing what the law, constitution and fair elections demand. If we adhere to these, Pakistan’s incoming leadership would find it easier to steer the country toward a better future.

Published in The Express Tribune, September 6^th, 2023.

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