The grievance ouroboros

Shortly before the 2004 US presidential election, a phantom appeared on American television screens. The gaunt-looking but visibly comfortable face of Osama bin Laden would remind the US electorate that the global war on terror was not over and that the US did not change presidents during wartime. As the elections took place, we learned that George W Bush, who had struggled to beat Al Gore in 2000 without the US Supreme Court’s support, had easily defeated John Kerry. Please note that the purpose of bringing up this episode after so much time is not to push new conspiracy theories but to get to the bottom of the extremist mindset. Therefore, we will stick to the sphere of known facts and causal links even as we ask a few relevant questions. What possible use could this appearance serve the world’s most hunted man? Was it merely a cartoonish attempt by the prey to cock a snook at the predator (you came close but never got me), or a Bush victory suited Bin Laden’s politics?

Another intriguing episode in recent US history. In 2016, before the Comey letter changed the trajectory of American politics, New York and New Jersey witnessed a succession of low-intensity and improvised terror attacks. Pipe bombs, pressure cooker bombs and similar devices were used to cause public panic and hurt as many people as possible by a 28-year-old lone-wolf terrorist inspired by Al-Qaeda. Ahmad Khan Rahami of Elizabeth, New Jersey, was eventually caught and, after trial, found guilty. Was it possible that Rahami would be oblivious to the probable political consequences of his assault? In the age of hyperconnectivity, where he was copying bomb-making techniques from Al-Qaeda manuals available online, could it escape his attention that this would bolster Trump’s anti-Muslim rhetoric and make a president with a Muslim-sounding name look weak and ineffectual? Or was a Trump victory the desired result?

Two more examples. The 2019 Pulwama attack diverted the Indian electorate’s attention from the Modi government’s abysmal economic performance, including the disastrous demonetisation campaign, the botched GST rollout, the ever-present non-performing asset crisis and shrinking jobs, and made everything about national security. I know many have called it a false flag, and the last governor of the erstwhile state of Jammu and Kashmir, Satya Pal Malik, keeps hinting at the deliberate lowering of the guard in the face of clear and present danger. But let us, for a moment, go along with the Indian national narrative that a vehicle-borne suicide bomber attacked and killed the CRPF personnel. They identified the attack vehicle, found a body and IDed it. Regardless of the Modi government’s intentions, do you think the perpetrator did not know how this act would reshape India’s politics ahead of the general elections?

Finally, the hostile symbiosis between Benjamin Netanyahu and Hamas. Israel went through a series of unsuccessful elections in the past few years. Election after election returned a hung parliament which would fail to push Bibi out of power or help him form a stable government. But whenever a severe attempt was underway to dislodge his government, Hamas would lob rockets at Israel, and the IDF would launch an operation in Gaza against the militant political group. What could Hamas gain from a stronger Netanyahu government, and why operation after operation fails to displace it from power?

All examples above may include at least one Muslim side, but not all such conflicts involve Muslims. That is why the Trump era was such a crystalising moment where we witnessed Antifa confronting Neo-Nazis, and the White Lives Matter group facing the Black Lives Matter movement, violent criminal and illegal immigrant gangs vs ICE. The purpose of all such fights seems to be to make moderates irrelevant. Almost all such groups are propelled by grievance politics.

The methodology employed by grievance politics is simple. In these tumultuous times, no society can claim to be at peace with itself. Draw a caricature of the worst inadequacies of your society today, then look back in history for a time when things were considerably better. The farther it is in the past, the easier it is to call such a period the golden age. If you do not find it, no bother. You can manufacture an ideal type by creatively interpreting ancient or obscure texts or scriptures. Now look for the most vulnerable, unassimilated subgroups that do not look or sound like you. Accuse them of being the cause of your decline and, if possible, enemy stooges. You can link this group with a hostile foreign power or non-state actor. While physical dissimilarities are helpful, don’t lose sleep if you don’t find any. Accusing a subgroup that looks similar to you of serving their foreign ideological masters is not that difficult. McCarthyism has already shown the way. Now work your magic on the masses and see them go crazy.

Clever as this plot might be, it has diminishing results. Any othered community/minority on the receiving end of your hate is bound to be finite. What happens when you run out of domestic enemies through elimination, subjugation or conversion? You cannot stop at that, can you? Eventually, it all has to lead you to a civilisation-ending clash with foreign entities. The 9/11 era temporarily suspended international cross-border rules, and many countries got away with a lot. But by being such a glaring example of the consequences, Trump ended that arrangement.

Had it not been for the Trump era wake-up call, every security pundit on TV would have been lecturing you on the inevitability of a clash of civilisations. Most of them stopped because people run institutions, and despite the relative cruelty or apathy of each profession, no man or woman can be beyond the reach of an endless reservoir of basic human decency. Many of them already know instinctively that what goes around comes around. A few hardened souls given to hate, rage or ambition still out there believe that even a remote hint of remorse or penitence may pulverise their existence or identity. That is why all these extremists employ similar methods and ensure that only radicals rise among the ranks of their enemies. While there might not be a single provable link connecting all of them, make no mistakes. In this radicalising project, they all are distant allies. Ordinary folk, the moderates, and the non-violent types are their common enemy. And they will not stop until they have destroyed any semblance of a middle ground.

Is there a way out? Yes. Three. One, convince them to stop. Two, break their connection with various states. Three, their total destruction. If there is a fourth way, pray, do let me know.

Until then, this snake chewing its tail, this grievance ouroboros, will keep growing and encircling us.

Published in The Express Tribune, August 19^th, 2023.

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