Dangerous appeasement

The blatant American appeasement of India, fully displayed during Prime Minster Modi’s recent visit to the US, is really a measure of America’s desperation to contain China. Convinced that India’s size, location and power can be harnessed to counter-balance China, American Presidents since Clinton have invested heavily to convert India into a “Net Security Provider”. But such appeasement can only prove dangerous, not only for South Asia but globally.

This has involved exceptional treatment for India despite repeated transgressions, several against the US itself. Shortly after Indian nuclear tests in 1998, Clinton began “engaging India” for a “new strategic partnership”. The next Bush administration approved a civilian nuclear cooperation agreement and engineered an exceptional waiver for India by the Nuclear Supplier Group (NSG), enhancing India’s nuclear weapons production capability. President Obama’s ‘Pivot to Asia’ policy included India in the Quadrilateral Alliance against China, along with Japan and Australia. Simultaneously, four foundational agreements were concluded for military, intelligence and logistics cooperation while exemptions were granted from American laws to transfer sensitive technologies. Presidents Trump and Biden have continued these policies with the latest concession being the Initiative on New and Emerging Technologies for weapons development, including cutting edge military systems.

In the political domain, Washington has withdrawn its visa ban on Modi, the “butcher of Gujarat” after he became Prime Minster in 2014 while giving a free pass for his human rights violations against Indian Muslims and repression in occupied Kashmir. Despite Modi’s democratic backsliding, the US also continues to expound the fiction about shared commitment to democracy and human rights. This clearly exposes Washington’s double standards. Meanwhile, the US also continues to endorse Indian candidature for permanent membership of the UN Security Council and the NSG.

Yet, despite such preferential treatment, India rejects any alliance with the US, preferring its policy of “strategic autonomy”, maintaining that in a multi-polar world there can be no friends but “frenemies”. Much to America’s chagrin, India also maintains its traditional partnership with Russia despite the Russian intervention in Ukraine. It has continued purchases of Russian S-400 missiles and other weapons in violation of CAASTSA sanctions, from which the US has been forced to issue a waiver. Moreover, India refuses to condemn Russian action against Ukraine in international forums, even as it continues to import discounted Russian oil and re-export it, including to the US itself.

Such purblind American appeasement of India is dangerous for South Asia, particularly Pakistan. Apart from encouraging Modi’s belligerence, the exponential growth in India’s conventional and strategic military capabilities poses an existential threat to Pakistan. Contrary to Indian claims of Pakistan’s “irrelevance”, nearly 80 per cent of Indian military capabilities are deployed against Pakistan with increasing threats of territorial aggression under the Cold Start doctrine for limited war below the nuclear threshold and even a pre-emptive nuclear first strike.

Rather than recognising that it is at least partially responsible for this situation and restraining Modi, the US has asked Pakistan to show restraint by freezing its strategic programme, meant to ensure credible deterrence against India. The US also seeks reversal of Pakistan’s strategic partnership with China, especially the CPEC project. Indeed, America’s geopolitical objective is Pakistan’s acceptance of India’s regional hegemony, including reversal of its Kashmir policy, so that India has a free hand to confront China as it moves to realise its ambition of becoming a global power. Since this option is unacceptable to either Pakistan or China, South Asia has become the only region in the world with confrontation Involving 4 nuclear powers.

Globally, American appeasement of India has already exposed Washington’s hypocrisy regarding freedom, democracy and human rights. Their criticism of China and Russia over these issues now rings hollow. Indeed, that such American criticism of other countries has always been politically motivated is now an accepted fact. This also demonstrates that the Indo-US partnership is purely driven by geopolitical considerations instead of being based on “shared values”.

Much more perilous is the impact on global and not just regional strategic developments. The appeasement of India on strategic matters — endorsement of its nuclear, missile and space developments — can only encourage other countries in the same directions. Yet another, even more dangerous, development could be the Indian testing and acquisition of thermo-nuclear (hydrogen) weapons. It is well-known that India is developing these weapons in its nuclear facilities near Mysore and claims to have tested a hydrogen bomb during its 1998 tests. But, according to Indian nuclear scientist, K Santhanam, this test was a failure and India would need to test again, despite its commitment not to do so. This has also been indicated by Ashley Tellis, an American academic of Indian origin, in his book, Striking Asymmetries, and in an interview with the Indian Express of 31 October 2022, where he stated that it would in America’s interest not to penalise India for testing a hydrogen bomb since this capability would be for use against China. More recently, another India analyst, Happymon Jacob, tweeted this possibility, wondering about the international response.

Resumed nuclear testing by India would certainly put the Americans in a quandary since they champion the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty while also opening up possibilities for testing by others. The American response to new nuclear tests by India is by no means clear and so far there has been no comment by Washington. But, given their consistent appeasement of India, the US may in fact reconcile to this development while conveying a polite rebuke — just as it did when Indian first tested in 1974 and shortly reversed its sanctions imposed after the 1998 Indian tests. In any event, Pakistan should take this possibility seriously and not be caught unawares if and when this happens.

To conclude, American appeasement of India has made the world a more dangerous place with the primary threat for Pakistan. At a minimum, this requires Pakistan to take all necessary measures to ensure its security, especially its credible minimum deterrence posture.

Published in The Express Tribune, July 20^th, 2023.

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