Urumqi talks and the hard truth about Afghanistan

Pakistan, once burdened by persistent allegations of complicity in terrorism, is now actively positioning itself on the other side of that divide - supporting ceasefire efforts in the Middle East, opening channels of dialogue and presenting itself as a country invested in de-escalation. Alongside that, China continues to expand its role as a stabilising force, using diplomacy and economic leverage to prevent fault lines from turning into crises.

It is within this broader context that the recent Urumqi talks – held from April 1 to 7 between China, Pakistan and Afghanistan – must be understood. The talks did not produce dramatic headlines or grand declarations, yet its importance lies in the clarity it offered.

China's Foreign Ministry spokesperson Mao Ning explicitly identified terrorism as the "core issue" affecting ties between Kabul and Islamabad. This reflects a growing regional consensus that the instability between Pakistan and Afghanistan is no longer about political misunderstandings or diplomatic gaps. It is rooted in a security problem that has persisted for decades.

Pakistan's position on this has been consistent. For years, Islamabad has argued that militant groups operating from Afghan soil pose a direct threat to its internal security. The presence of armed groups in Afghanistan has long been documented by international bodies, including UN monitoring teams and regional security assessments. What has changed is the scale and intensity of the threat.

Since the Taliban returned to power in 2021, Pakistan has witnessed a sharp rise in attacks, many of which are linked to TTP. The numbers are difficult to ignore. Hundreds of attacks in a single year, and thousands of casualties over the past few years, point to a pattern rather than isolated incidents.

But to fully understand the present, one must briefly revisit the past.

Afghanistan has been at the centre of regional instability for over four decades. From the Soviet invasion in 1979 to the US-led intervention after 2001, the country has seen continuous conflict. Each phase has left behind networks of armed groups, fragmented authority and weak state control. Pakistan, as a neighbour, has been directly affected by these developments.

The expectation after 2021 was that a stable Afghan government would bring order and reduce cross-border threats. Instead, the situation has become more complex. While the Taliban leadership has sought international recognition, its ability or willingness to act against militant groups remains in question. This gap between commitment and action is where the problem lies.

The Urumqi talks highlight this contradiction. On one hand, Afghanistan and Pakistan reaffirm their commitment to peaceful dialogue and regional stability. On the other, the core issue identified by China remains unresolved. Dialogue without addressing the root cause risks becoming repetitive.

What also makes the current situation more serious is that the impact of terrorism is no longer limited to Pakistan. There is increasing evidence that militant groups based in Afghanistan are expanding their reach. Attacks linked to groups such as ISKP and ETIM have targeted not just regional actors but also foreign nationals, including Chinese citizens. This changes the nature of the threat. It is no longer a bilateral issue. It is a regional and, in some cases, international concern.

This is where China's role becomes important.

Stability in Afghanistan is directly linked to the security of its investments and its broader regional ambitions, including connectivity projects under BRI. The fact that China is emphasising terrorism as the central issue suggests that patience is limited, and expectations from Kabul are rising.

If the Afghan government seeks stable relations with its neighbours and a place in the regional framework, it must move beyond statements. Dismantling terrorist networks, denying safe havens and taking visible action against groups like TTP and ISKP are essential. Without this, trust will remain fragile, and every round of dialogue will begin from the same unresolved point.