New wilayas of TTP

Recently, the Tehreek e Taliban Pakistan (TTP) announced plans to create two Wilayas (provinces) in Punjab. One is going to be situated in the south and the other in the north. Interestingly no wilaya has been announced in the central region of the province. It is however possible that the jurisdictions of these two wilayas may intersect somewhere in the geographical limitation of central Punjab. There is also a probability that TTP has left it vacant for multiple reasons such as lack of human resources and financial issues. The announcement came at a time when the group appears to have increased its activities in the country, especially in parts of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP) and Balochistan. One can sense an underlying threat in the statement that TTP is expanding its influence and is going to be active in the most populated province of the country.

The Taliban first introduced shadow governments in Afghanistan in 2002-03 thus heralding their regrouping and reestablishment in the backdrop of the US invasion of Afghanistan. The shadow governors were responsible for four main areas namely military matters, finance, culture, and communications. The roles given to individuals were sometimes theoretical or ad hoc in nature. It took many years before the fluid situation translated into something practical. The shadow governments were established under different governing commissions, which looked at the ground situation before announcing the existence of any such parallel structure in Afghanistan. These commissions came into existence when Taliban thought that they had enough ground support and would like to extend services to locals through the establishment of a shadow government. People having special know-how about an area were usually posted there as administrators for public facilitation
and assistance.

The announcement of new wilayas of TTP in Punjab may emulate Taliban’s shadow governance model. The move signals that TTP has gathered enough human resources that it expects some sort of support from these areas. The TTP must have a considerable number of sleeper cells, which can be activated anytime anywhere in a wilaya. The persons nominated as the governors of the wilayas might not be present physically at the place and there is a high likelihood that they may be operating from across the border. Usually, such a set-up is governed by tapping financial sources through multiple means including extortion and other criminal activities. There have been instances in which TTP affiliates have deceived people, abducted them, and then extracted money from their families and relatives. There is a sizable number of registered and unregistered Afghans in the province, which may present interesting prospects in these wilayas. The names, in all probability, appear to be incorrect but it suggests that TTP might have chosen them with a rational approach. There seems to be a strong correlation between one name with Red Mosque and the other with a South Punjab district. Resultantly, a former member of Ghazi force or one of its affiliates might be the governor of northern Punjab wilaya. The capital of this province seems to be near Rawalpindi or its suburban area. The city teems with an unregistered population belonging to various geographical dispensations. The presence of Afghans and individuals from Newly Merged Districts (NMDs) makes it a complex demographic kaleidoscope of different age brackets. The centre of southern Punjab province is likely to be DG Khan owing to its proximity to KP and Balochistan. The high youth density and soaring poverty index of the region make it susceptible to local recruitment and enlistment as well.

Recently, extortion calls have been detected in different cities in the province from Afghan based numbers in which people with mixed financial backgrounds allegedly received messages from TTP to pay money or face consequences in case of non-compliance. An inquiry disclosed that Afghan people with criminal mindsets were involved in it, but such individuals can easily be employed by the TTP. The LEAs must work wholeheartedly to detect the sleeper cells functioning in the southern and northern parts of the province to alleviate them.

Published in The Express Tribune, July 5^th, 2023.

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