Iran-Saudi thaw

The ever-improving ties between Saudi Arabia and Iran since the China-brokered normalisation of relations have seen a new milestone, as Iran reopened its diplomatic missions with a full ambassador in Riyadh. Although the Saudis have not named an ambassador to Tehran or even announced a reopening date, both are expected in the near future. The improvement in ties has been a source of relief for almost every country in the region — with the obvious exception of Israel — and most world powers. Even the US has claimed to be okay with the thaw, though several US military and State Department officials have made their concerns known through thinly-veiled criticism.

Saudi-Iran ties broke down in 2016 after the Saudis sentenced to death and hanged a dissident Shia cleric. Iranians stormed the Saudi embassy in Tehran soon after, and the Saudis then expelled Iranian diplomats. But ties have been frayed since the Iranian revolution in 1979, which deposed the pro-US shah, who was also friendly with the Saudis. Since then, the two countries have had frequent low-level flare-ups and have been on opposite sides of some of the world’s worst proxy wars, including wars in Syria, Yemen, Iraq and Afghanistan. But shifting sands — including the ever-evolving US relationship with the Saudis based on which party controls the White House, and increasingly aggressive Israeli rhetoric regarding Iran — have led to both Riyadh and Tehran seeking insurance policies. China’s role in the deal also means that both Middle Eastern countries are now realigning themselves with Beijing.

Already, most Arab states have renewed ties with Syria and the regime of President Bashar al-Assad, and new efforts are afoot to resolve the Yemen war and the political crisis in Lebanon. This further concerns Israel, where the hardline regime of Benjamin Netanyahu has been hoping to normalise ties with the Saudis by playing up Iran as a common enemy. But peace is not a zero-sum game. If Israel started treating the Palestinians like humans, Tehran and Riyadh would surely still be open to talks.

Published in The Express Tribune, June 7^th, 2023.

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