Erdogan triumphs again

President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s win in the tightly contested election was watched with great interest through major capitals around the world for Turkey is a strategically important country straddling at the crossroads of Europe and Asia and a prominent member of NATO. Its aspirations for being a member of the European Union have for long been frustrated due to its dispute with Greece on the Cyprus issue. And there is an unspoken but strong tendency among certain members that it is a grouping of Christian countries. Turkey is among those few Muslim countries that are democratic and has a presidential form of government notwithstanding its certain weaknesses. It has a rich history. Its empire and influence in the 16^th/17^th century extended well beyond its borders. Over time its influence and standing waned as that of most Muslim and Third World countries.

Erdogan who recently won a third presidential term is however no ordinary leader. He has dominated the politics and strategic direction of Turkey for the last two decades and, with his recent electoral victory, will continue to do so in the years ahead. Having the opportunity of visiting Turkey several times earlier while in official capacity and subsequently after retirement as part of interaction between think-tanks and attending seminars and conferences, I have witnessed the country’s profound changes from dictatorial or military rule and transition to democracy. By sheer coincidence I was in Turkey for one of the seminars close to the period when Erdogan led the movement in which he succeeded in toppling the military junta. It was a fairly bloody transition which has been well documented. Turkey has come a long way since reviving the economy and establishing political stability in which President Erdogan’s contribution is significant. He has been successful in countering coups by the military, the most significant was in 2016. He also successfully managed to purge the army leadership of those who remained irreconcilable to civilian rule. However, the authoritarian streak in him has made politics fairly divisive, but it is likely as he indicated in his speech after his victory that he is president of all Turkish people that he would be more tolerant of critics and heed their views.

Erdogan rose to prominence when he was elected the mayor of Istanbul. His good governance of the metropolis and a major uplift of the city won the admiration of his people and gave him the confidence to aspire for country’s top leadership. He succeeded and was elected prime minster twice in succession spanning from 2003 to 2014.

I am witness to the remarkable progress that the country made as there were several think-tank meetings that I attended or was invited by official groups during that period. Apart from significant uplift of major cities of Ankara, Istanbul and others, the countryside too improved considerably. Special attention was given to raise agricultural output and strengthen the industrial sector by introducing new technologies and manufacturing processes. The shipyards and airports acquired a new look.

After having won the election as President in 2014, Erdogan campaigned to transform Turkey’s constitution from a parliamentary to a presidential system. Probably, the delays in getting major proposals approved by the parliament frustrated him and were against his instincts. However, looking at the change objectively it tilted power heavily in favour of the president and enfeebled the parliament and indirectly weakened democracy. The re-election of Erdogan for the third term, although by a narrow margin, does indicate that there is significant opposition to Erdogan’s policies which hopefully he will remain cognizant of while dealing with the opposition and governing the country in future. Considering that Turkey’s economy is facing a serious crisis with lira at one of its lowest levels and the recent earthquake compounding the challenge, Erdogan has a tough task ahead. His recent conciliatory message after his victory reflected his concern for the deep divisions within the society and the state of economy and augurs well if corrective measures are faithfully implemented. For Pakistan, Turkey is a major ally and its peoples have strong bonds and wish it well.

Pakistan’s leadership can draw useful lessons from the recent elections in Turkey and from developments and happenings in major Muslim and developing countries. The successes and setbacks of President Erdogan and positive developments in Muslim countries and around the world such as the Saudi-Iranian rapprochement should make us look inwards for self-correction. It is apparent that the present power configuration based on multiple compromises does not have the ability to correct the national direction and stabilise the situation. Its inability to fix the economy and create an environment for sound politics has weakened the country. This would require the leadership to focus on betterment of the country and its people and stay away from petty politics. Holding of national and provincial elections soon is crucial from every angle — stabilising politics, improving the state of the economy and restoring the confidence of international community. Above all it is in accordance with the dictates of the constitution and a prerequisite for steering the nation in the right direction and is what our leaders owe to the people. The responsibility of self-correction lies much on the other institutions — judiciary, military, bureaucracy and media. For they all are facing serious internal challenges and experiencing difficulties in interacting with each other. There are lessons for us to be learnt from the success and failures of other countries.

President Erdogan’s success lay in many fields but two major achievements were crucial in turning Turkey around. Improving the economy to be amongst the world’s top 20 economies. At present however it is passing through a difficult phase due to rehabilitation efforts after the earthquake and overspending in certain areas to gain electoral support. Erdogan’s compassion for the Palestinian cause and open support for Kashmiris is laudable.

Hopefully, with all the wealth of experience and lessons learnt, Turkey under the sagacious leadership of President Erdogan will continue to prosper.

Published in The Express Tribune, June 7^th, 2023.

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