Rising terror after Kabul fall

So-called expert predictions that the Afghan Taliban’s return to power in Kabul would herald a decline in terrorism in Pakistan have been rubbished over the past year, as attacks have surged by 73% in the 21 months since August 2021. And it is not just frequency. The attacks have also gotten more lethal, with a recent study showing total deaths rose 138% by the end of April.

The Pakistan Institute for Peace Studies report, titled ‘Pakistan’s Afghan Perspective and Policy Options’, also notes that the provinces bordering Afghanistan — Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan — were the worst affected by the terrorism surge. In fact, terror incidents in Islamabad and the eastern provinces of Sindh and Punjab actually posted small declines. This underlines the pessimists’ view at the time the Ghani government fell — namely that the Afghan Taliban would not reign in the TTP, who have been operating from Afghan soil for several years. Despite the Afghan Taliban’s historically friendly relations with Pakistan, the TTP shares much more with the Afghan group in terms of ideology, making it unlikely that either group would want to step on the other’s toes. Despite the many differences with the Ghani and Karzai governments, their opposition to extremism — and subservience to the US — meant they were usually still willing to do the bare minimum to reign in terrorism. The Afghan Taliban will not even do that much.

It has become increasingly clear that the Afghans are willing to let the relationship with Pakistan deteriorate to no end rather than taking meaningful action against the TTP. There have even been incidents where Kabul tried to excuse the TTP’s attacks on civilians. But the blame cannot all go to external forces. Baloch and Sindhi nationalists continue to be active, in no small part due to the failure of the state to uplift these populations, instead responding to their mostly legitimate complaints with apathy and brute force.

Published in The Express Tribune, June 3^rd, 2023.

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