IK’s arrest: days of future past

The politics of vendetta came full circle when paramilitary forces stormed IHC to arrest former PM Imran Khan on May 9. And with this, PDM has demonstrated a preference for political retribution over allegiance to the nation and its citizens. The turn of events left thousands of PTI supporters disgruntled, manifesting their discontent through fervent street protests. As a result, sporadic outbursts of violence emerged nationwide, and clashes with law enforcers resulted in unfortunate fatalities.

Unwilling to succumb to public pressure, the government responded hastily by imposing a broadband internet and social media blackout in affected areas, alongside implementing Section 144 across multiple provinces and curbing the media from broadcasting protests. This not just violated the law and basic human rights, but also had disastrous effects that reverberated across multiple sectors. Telecommunication companies in particular incurred a revenue loss of around Rs2.46 billion, translating into a decrease of Rs861 million in tax revenue for the government. Despite the measures, continued escalation on the streets necessitated the deployment of army personnel in Islamabad, Punjab and K-P to control the ensuing chaos. The country was seen rapidly descending into civil unrest.

Being thrown back into the whirlwind of political uncertainty had a profound impact on the financial landscape in a relatively short time span. Gold prices skyrocketed to unprecedented levels while the rupee depreciated significantly, reaching new record lows. Remarkably, Khan’s arrest coincided with a warning from Moody, cautioning Pakistan of the impending risk of default if the IMF bailout is not secured by June.

The army called the incident a “black chapter” in the country’s history, underscoring the severity of the situation, and unequivocally warning that any hostile actions directed towards law enforcement agencies will be met with resolute retaliation. To restore some semblance of balance, the Supreme Court jumped in as a saviour, providing temporary respite to the cornered tiger by terming his controversial arrest as illegal.

Don’t be mistaken. We are indeed witnessing a repeat of history. Khan’s fall from grace is yet another damning indictment of how political pawns are discarded by the establishment after their purpose is fulfilled. Other state actors are either playing auxiliary roles or remain mere onlookers. The only difference this time is that the powers-that-be have chosen to adopt a more discreet approach, exerting its influence indirectly by strategically positioning key actors on the political chessboard and controlling who gets to move the pieces and when. However, for them, Khan is now an experiment gone bad; a perfect ambassador that turned rogue very quickly and has gained immense popularity and power.

But what did Khan expect would happen when he lost power, considering the fierce crackdown on his opposition and the clash of egos with the establishment during his tenure? Doesn’t he remember that the very bill that allows punishment for intentionally bringing to disrepute or defaming the Armed Forces was introduced by a PTI MNA and subsequently passed when PTI was in power?

On the other hand, the establishment and the government are acutely aware of the deep-rooted loyalty that the public holds for Khan, along with the anticipated repercussions if he were arrested. Taking such a bold step during a period of economic distress will not augur well for them in terms of public support. People who managed to remain neutral all this time are now seen tilting towards Khan, giving him a sympathetic nod of approval.

From the very onset of coming to power, PDM’s intentions were clear: i) Rid themselves of the barrage of cases that Khan had piled up against them and pave the way for Nawaz’s return through an NRO; ii) Give the former PM a taste of his own medicine, eventually eliminating his party altogether and restoring the status quo of ‘Purana Pakistan’.

With pressure mounting on holding elections, PDM now seeks to detain the PTI chairman and other stalwarts for an extended duration, using the prevailing atmosphere of violence purportedly instigated by PTI party workers as a basis to advocate for the complete prohibition of the party. Only then will PDM proceed forward because, let’s be honest, with Khan contesting, there is no chance that PDM can win. Their obsession is odd, almost maniacal, and the entire plan reeks of the age-old practice of political victimisation that has long tainted Pakistan’s history. Each time it manifests, it is ultimately the people who suffer.

Both political parties have strategically utilised state apparatuses to consolidate their authority. During Khan’s tenure, he himself employed NAB, a remnant of past dictatorial leadership, to target his political opponents, yet he now finds himself confronting similar circumstances after losing power.

Each concerned player is perpetuating dangerous narratives that suit their agenda, distorting facts and molding the truth to suit their strategic objectives. Khan has been most successful at this. In fact, his ideology is so potent that it has permeated the establishment’s rank and file, creating fissures within. More so, his ideology has garnered strong support from a significant portion of the population and the diaspora, primarily due to frustrations with chronically corrupt political figures who have long held positions of authority, detrimentally undermining the nation’s progress for their personal gain. Supporters of PTI are willing to both give and take lives if necessary. Do not forget that the swift deployment of the army in two provinces transpired within a single day. Had Khan’s arrest prolonged, it is conceivable that Pakistan would have experienced a civilian uprising. Despite the Army’s reluctance to resort to such measures, the potential for martial law imposition would have been the only viable option to regain control.

No country can survive for long under a constitutional, political and economic crisis. Atop this, Pakistan is witnessing the worst of all: an institutional crisis in which deep divisions are created between and within them. The very pillars of a democratic state, that are supposed to work like a well-oiled machine, are now pitted against each other — and at this point everyone’s hands are soiled. Moving forward, all stakeholders need to engage in thoughtful introspection if they don’t want to find themselves on the wrong side of history.

Published in The Express Tribune, May 22^nd, 2023.

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